Weekly Gold Update: What to Look forward to?
Monday
Monday this week is all about the development in the Russia and Ukraine conflict, which focuses on the US-Ukraine alongside the European Leaders meeting this afternoon in Washington, D.C. (Approximately the next day in Philippine time).
Highlight:
The gold price climbed in the morning as they anticipate a negative outlook for the upcoming meeting—a.k.a., The US will likely pressure Ukraine to accept the deal of exchanging the territory for the peace agreement. Especially when the Putin-Trump summit on Saturday has not fully disclosed any official information yet, albeit Trump claims to have made good progress.
Tip Here:
- If Ukraine accepts the deal or reaches a more certain agreement → the market may be repriced, and the gold slip is very likely.
- But if the deal is not reached or uncertainty still remains → gold could potentially rise.
Thursday to Saturday
Jackson Hole symposium and the Federal Reserve Speeches.
The Jackson Hole symposium is an annual international conference in Wyoming that involves important figures such as central bankers, policymakers, and financial market participants, where the watchers will gain insight from the perspective of the central bank on the current economic outlook and future monetary policy. Plus, with the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Thursday, all of these will be offered on the next initiative of the September interest rate decision.
Other than that, the market also expects to see the FED’s and other major central banks’ thoughts on the current changes in tariffs’ impact as well. Please also note that this might be the last time that the FED’s Jerome Powell will be in this conference; therefore, as much as I want to think that he will settle on a good term. There is still some chance that Powell might give his all in his speeches.
Tip Here:
Look for the motive of their speeches, not only from the FED, but also from other central bankers as well.
- Dovish or signal a rate cut → pull gold upward.
- Hawkish or signal on holding → gold likely to slip.
Technical Analysis
- Weekly Volume Profile: Price stays at the midpoint of the point of control, it also stays below last week’s Point of control, telling the bias of the market is in a downtrend scenario.
- Premium Price is above 3348.
- Possible price projection is 3293.
