Weekly Data Summary Report
As of May 12, 2025
Below is the summary of the United States, which is mainly based on economic indicators, critical events related to President Donald Trump’s trade conflict with other trading partners, and GOLD prices movement within this week.
Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice.
The Federal Reserve used a “wait and see” approach by holding the interest rate high for longer, as they foresaw an upside risk of inflation and unemployment rate. The FED chair, Powell, cited that there is no data to support this yet. However, if these two come together, then a stagflation scenario is likely to emerge. As per Simon White, Markets Live macro strategist, “The Fed may be forced to cut rates this year if tariffs cause a recession.”
Regardless, seeing the recent tariff progress and the war conflict come closer to easing, this has fueled more confidence and expectations on growth that could avoid any recession, aka debt deficit and high inflation. Therefore, this has forced the recent gold prices to fall significantly.
Crucial Information in detail you should be aware of:
- India and Pakistan: A Truce between India and Pakistan has been reached after the two nuclear-armed countries struck back and forth. In fact, Donald Trump declared that both countries had reached a “FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE” on Saturday, although some denied the US’s involvement.
- Russia-Ukraine: Trump publicly declared a meeting with the President of Ukraine and Russia on Thursday once again, aiming to put an end to the “bloodbath”. However, Ukraine will only agree if Russia halts the 30-day ceasefire.
- US-China relationship: The talk between them went “substantial progress”, as per Trump’s citation, and further details will be provided later. The market will determine the progress of these talks.
- Pharmaceutical tariff: Trump will announce that the pharmaceutical prices will be reduced by 30% to 80% tomorrow morning at 9 AM (around 9 PM Cambodia time)
So what is the catch here?
The GOLD downfall in the short term is likely to continue unless more escalation of war or tariffs on China or demand from China rises. Meaning that if a ceasefire comes as expected and the US and other major trading partners agree to reduce the tariff, GOLD prices will continue to fall in the short run. Therefore, many are still looking forward to the China-US talks on Sunday in detail, along with other major parties that play roles in war conflicts.
Other than this, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam will be on Trump’s trade agreement priority list. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba intends to reach a trade agreement with the US in July, given high concerns about auto tariffs, Asahi reported over the weekend. Friendly reminder, Japan holds the “US treasury cards” for the negotiation.
The Market reaction:
Gold prices still gained +3.10% this week, despite a shortfall at the end of the week.
