Weekly Data Summary Report
As of June 23, 2025
Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on economic indicators, critical events related to President Donald Trump, and war conflicts within the week.
Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump posted on his social media that he ”completed a successful attack on 3 nuclear sites in Iran,” targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, and yet, none on Iranian leadership, military bases, or critical infrastructure. As per Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London think tank, this has concluded that “Trump still wants to avoid a full-blown war, especially one with regime changes as its goals”, reflecting that he desires to avoid the risks and costs of a large-scale war aimed at overthrowing their government—namely, World War III.
Although Trump cited “the biggest damage took place far below ground” in his social platform, there were no signs of radioactive contamination, according to the IAEA. and this is unable to confirm Trump’s statement. Regardless, Iran also warned of retaliation through blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for global oil supplies.
However, remember China is a key economic partner and Iran’s largest oil buyer; if Iran really retaliated by this method, China would be the most affected. Several analysts commented that this is a very unlikely scenario, as this may pose more of a threat to Iran. China also criticizes the US airstrike and is committed to being involved in the escalation.
All of these are causing more panic in the market, and even the US State Department issued a “Worldwide Caution” alert for American citizens regarding travel disruption. Additionally, Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, also warned about the potential of an “oil shock” for an administration that could bring more economic costs to the United States.
Other than that, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the interest rate last week, with the majority voting for a rate hold, saying that the pivot stance might not be in the near term and suggesting a cautious approach through tightening longer. While the labor market stayed solid, inflation expectations got higher due to the tariff problem. The odds of a rate reduction in September rose to 57.7%, leaving two rate cut projections this year, as per the CME Fedwatch Tool.
Looking Forward:
- Russia’s Putin mentioned last time that “Russia and Ukraine will hold new talks after June 22,” which also refers to this week.
- Trump to Meet With National Security Team 1 pm ET Monday
Opinion
With all the recent events that have come into place—Trump’s involvement in Israel and Iran, which adds to the existing worries, and along with high inflation expectations—I just wonder if all of these are also one of his moves to make the Federal Reserve reduce the interest rate as well. Something I call a noise that risks the investor’s sentiment and puts the economic growth in a very bad spot, and forces the Federal Reserve to reduce the interest rate, as Trump desires? Remember, Trump wants low interest rates to help with the debt problem and deterioration in economic growth, which “MIGHT” require the FED to do so. Therefore, we need to keep our eyes on Trump’s movement, GDP, and inflation data this week.
