Factor in gold price movement:
- The Federal Reserve Interest Rate Projection: The incoming rate cut would be on September 18, 2025, at 1:00 AM Cambodia time, with odds of 89.7% on a rate cut, a rise from the previous 87.6%.
→ More odds on rate cut → push gold prices higher.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent also stated that “There’s a good chance US CEA’s Miran is seated before the September Fed meeting,” according to a Semafor interview. This remark is also marked as a factor in shaking the Federal Reserve’s independence and leading to higher gold prices as well, especially when the FED governor Lisa Cook’s position is still under threat.
- India: Trump posted on his Truth Social that India “has now offered to cut their tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting too late,” although there is no response or confirmation from India yet.
Reaction: Not much reaction to the Gold prices.
- Geopolitical Tension: Russia and Ukraine remain in escalation, with no sign of a ceasefire anytime soon, while the US and Venezuela are also ready to fight each other over the accusation of drug trafficking and criminal organizations. Additionally, between the Israel and Gaza conflict, Iran with E3, and the US sanctions, there is no further development from the last report.
→ So as long as geopolitical tensions still exist, the gold price is likely to rise, especially when an easing monetary policy (rate cut) environment has already come into play this month. However, do note that a gold price correction is also likely in the short term due to changes in geopolitics and the FED’s stance.
