PCE Price Index Report Tonight!
After yesterday’s quarterly inflation data overshot the projected reading, tonight will focus more on the price changes in April—a month of Liberation Day.
Estimation:
PCE Price Index monthly data—the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge— will likely rise to 0.1%, up from 0.0%, while both personal income and spending anticipate a decline from prior data.
Do consider these facts:
The majority of data for the monthly figure in April is very supportive of having a higher persistent inflation, which was proven by both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing price indexes, the consumer price index, and the import price index. And many other Federal Reserve officials also emphasized that as well. However, that does not always define the whole data tonight. The Uncertain data has yet to come, so let’s be more patient on this.
What does it mean?
– Exceeded will present more on inflation coming and support more on the rate hold.
– Lower inflation and declining consumption shall be taken as a cautious approach from consumers toward uncertainty that forces them to save more, while the businesses prioritize lowering prices to meet the demand for consumption. This reduces the odds of a rate hold to some degree, albeit not much.
