Monthly Report in October, 2025
Executive Summary
This report provides an analysis of the primary factors influencing gold prices, offering insights for investors.
***All information presented is for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation for trading or investment decisions.
Fundamental Analysis
Previous Recap of the Whole Economy: Last month, the Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate further, despite having concerns about the dual mandate. One is the labor fragility, and another one is the inflation problem, which many still consider to what extent one of those have the most weight on the economic growth before making any decision? Regardless, we are still seeing some improvement in the GDP in the second quarter, while the consumer spending is still resilient, possibly due to the “back-to-school shopping,” as per a Bloomberg source. Other than that, there are other factors contributing as well, such as the geopolitical tensions, trade war, US government shutdown, etc. With these reasons, the gold prices have climbed by more than 11% this month.
Forward-Looking
So, now, before another interest rate decision in October comes into place, what are the factors to consider?
US economy: Economic indicator-wise, we are considering two main data points, such as the employment situation report, which has been delayed to October 10, 2025 (likely to be further delayed) due to the US government shutdown, and inflation data on October 15.
So if both data are showing softening—meaning labor is weakening and inflation is also declining—all of these will likely support a rate cut bet this month, and the FED will have no choice but to deliver a more dovish tone to the market.
But if not, let’s say labor is weak, but the inflation is persistent, then the market will put more pressure on the inflation data, just like how it did in the September rate cut. This could also mean a hawkish rate cut, which would make the FED less confident in the next decision.
Below is the interest rate cut projection in accordance with the CME Fedwatch Tool, which many still project to see two more before the year’s end.
Especially, we are still unsure about the extent of the US shutdown. In the most normal case, this shutdown should not be delayed any further, as the further it goes on, the worse it will be, such as massive layoffs, budget deficits, aid expense halts, weakening economic growth, etc.
→ In other terms, the factor contributes to the gold price surge.
Aside from the Federal Reserve rate decision this month, also focus on the rate decisions from other central banks in Japan, Canada, and Europe. Especially when Japan just elected a new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, from whom many expect to see some stimulus coming.
The Geopolitical Tension
Egypt ceasefire: The current tension has become less intense as the ongoing ceasefire talks that have taken place in Egypt between Israel, Hamas, and the US envoy Steve Witkoff have been sending a positive outlook on the negotiation, albeit nothing is fully disclosed yet. The focus will fall on the release of hostages this week, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pledged to eliminate Hamas’ rule and “ensure Gaza won’t pose a threat to Israel,” according to the Al Jazeera source. Regardless, some sources also reported that Israel continues to shoot down and injure the Palestinians amid the negotiation talks.
Russia-Ukraine Development: Russia continues to strike against Ukraine, causing significant damage to Ukrainian gas production and Nuclear Power Plant facilities. Even US President Donald Trump came to the conclusion that Russia is no longer interested in a peace deal, and the US is now considering supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, putting pressure to end this conflict, despite Putin’s warning.
→ As long as the tension in the war conflict and the ceasefire are unable to be reached, this will continue to support the gold price going up.
Technical Analysis
Gold Market Overview — September 2025
Gold is currently trading at $4032.72, continuing its bullish momentum amid the US government shutdown. The chart reveals a strong buying pressure since the Asian session.
Key Technical Zones
- Current Price: $3,646.09 — Trading above all major resistance zones with 7 weeks straight up.
- Last Week Point of Control (POC) at 3981.81: The Highest volume level from last week, indicating where market participants found the most value, acts as the first support level.
- Last Week Volume Cluster at $3,773.00 — A high-volume “fair value” zone from last week can act as a second support level.
Trading Strategy
- Bullish Bias: The current trend remains bullish, having climbed for seven consecutive weeks. However, the extended rally increases the likelihood of a short-term correction. Traders looking for long opportunities should be cautious, as the probability of continuation may be lower at this stage.
- Pullback Scenario: if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is agreed upon and the price breaks below yesterday’s Point of Control of 3982 the market could retest the volume cluster area at 3773.
