As of April 01, gold hit a record high above $3,130 per ounce, fueled by tariff anticipation, inflation fears, and safe-haven demand—setting the stage for April. Here is something you should look forward to in April.
***Disclaimer: This content reflects personal opinions and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Thank you.
Fundamental Analysis
Factor 1: Reciprocal Tariff Date or Liberation Day (Main Event)
Trump’s pledge to impose reciprocal tariffs on neighboring countries, particularly in China, the EU, and possibly Russia, as well as nations reliant on Venezuela’s oil exports. And any further escalation could increase market uncertainty
Remember:
- If Trump continues its reciprocal tariff plan without any exemptions and major economies like China or the EU strike back–escalating beyond expectations, then the GOLD price of $3,200 per ounce is very likely to be in play this month.
- If Trump grants exemptions on some goods, which would ease uncertainty, then this could lead to a stall or some dips in the short term.
Highlight: Trade tensions rising would lead to inflation fear and uncertainty, which potentially boosts gold as a hedge.
Factor 2: Escalating War
Military threats over Iran’s nuclear program if an agreement is not reached, along with Middle East flare-ups, are all heightening uncertainty and boosting gold.
Highlight: War tension persists, which would lead investors to risk-off, spiking safe-haven demand further.
Factor 3: Federal Reserve
The Fed is planning to slow balance sheet runoff starting April 1, suggesting a view of approaching the quantitative easing (QE) but not entirely. All of this is leading to the devaluation of the US dollar and the pushing of gold even higher.
Highlight: A dovish Fed could support gold prices, though exemptions or firm QT might turn it bearish short-term.
- Bullish for Gold: Uncertainty, trade tension, War conflicts, higher inflation expectations, and Fed dovishness
- Bearish Risks: Tariff exemptions, a hawkish Fed, a ceasefire, or confidence spikes are plausible risks; albeit short-term pullbacks or corrections would be likely.
Technical Analysis
Here are some scenarios for the GOLD price in April:
- Scenario 1: If the market breaks above 3151.95, look for a buy opportunity in the target of 3168-3175.
- Scenario 2: If the market breaks below 3137.83, look for a sell opportunity and aim to exit the target at the buy reversal level of 3109.
- Scenario 3: Swing Buy Position should wait for Long at buy reversal 3109.
- Scenario 4: If the price breaks below 3095, look for another sell position exit target at 3079-3071.
