Weekly Data Summary Report
As of August 25, 2025
Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on critical events related to President Donald Trump, the trade war, and war conflicts within the week.
Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice.
Key Highlight Event:
Geopolitical Event: The Russia-Ukraine war conflict still goes on, despite the last ceasefire talks, with the Russian officials accusing Ukraine of attacking the Kursk Nuclear Power plant and causing a fire, albeit no injuries. Russian forces, on the other hand, are also launching shelling and drone attacks on Ukrainian regions, raising the tension between the two.
For now, Canada, France, and other countries are showing support for Ukraine with a security guarantee in place for the upcoming meeting. As for Trump, he said that, “I may decide on sanctions for Russia in 2 weeks if needed.” Other than this, the Israel and Gaza fight still continues.
Tariff Development: The US reduced some EU goods from 25% to 15% with plans to further reduce auto tariffs once they pass matching tariff cut legislation. Steel and aluminum tariffs will remain unchanged, according to Trump Trade Adviser Peter Navarro. However, India is likely to face double tariffs for purchasing the Russian oil.
US Economic Conditions:
Housing market conditions: Housing sales are slightly turning upward as price growth slows and mortgage rates ease, increasing demand for the housing sector; however, building permits dropped in July. And with the higher expectation of a rate cut, the housing market will likely improve in the near term, although this can be a very short-term improvement, considering how the Federal Reserve is very cautious.
Jackson Hole: The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted in Jackson Hole at the possible rate cut in September, although we are still unsure whether October and December will likely continue easing. But one thing is for sure: Powell stressed the weakening in the labor market while still seeing some rising inflation from the tariffs. From all of these, we can assume that the stagflation scenario will still emerge when these data continue their trend.
The market anticipates having an 87.2% chance of having a rate cut by 25 bps, while leaving another 48.1% for another cut before year-end.
The initial market reactions:
Gold up
Oil up
Dollar down
Bond yield down
Indices up
Stocks like Apple, NVDA, and Tesla are up.
Other economic conditions:
In other economies, such as the UK, Japan, or even Canada, the inflation problem still exists, and the central banks will likely continue holding the rate. The UK’s inflation grew higher, which could be attributed to high wage inflation, food, transport, etc. Meanwhile, Japan’s inflation is still focused on the rice prices that remain sticky and may push the BOJ to reconsider resuming before tightening, although the overall inflation slipped. And as for Canadian inflation, inflation also eased, yet the Bank of Canada still commits to staying on course unless the economy deteriorates sharply.
Except for the EU, which continues to meet the restrictive level of 2%, resulting from the strong EURO and lower energy costs, the ECB is still likely to hold the rate.
