Market Pulse: Inflation, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Risks

Despite having a softer print in the producer price index, which is known for the wholesale inflation last night, the gold price did not seem to move much. This could be seen as the act that the investor really awaits for tonight’s big inflation headline—consumer price index, as this will signal the Federal Reserve’s motive for the next meeting. The September rate cut is already priced in, but for the October and December? That’s the real question. As per Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, “I would expect a 25 bps cut, and I think you could see one or two other cuts.” This could be due to the recent tariff concerns. 

Speaking of the tariffs, Mexico plans to hike the tariffs on cars from Asia, specifically targeting China, up to 50%, causing some tension for the trade agreement, as Mexico has become the biggest destination for cars from China. As for other countries such as the US and Canada, they are very unlikely to be affected due to a free-trade pact, known as the USMCA. 

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump urged the EU to impose a 100% on India and China for purchasing Russian oil, although many still believe this is very likely to be rejected.

And for Russia and Ukraine, updated, Russia continues to violate Poland’s airspace, and Poland has shot down 4 out of at least 19 Russian drones. In fact, as the intrusion continues, Poland has received plenty of support for the air defense from the EU allies as well. And for Trump, he now acknowledges the invasion that Russia had on Poland, while many were expecting to see more escalation and response from Trump.  

Meanwhile, Israel and Qatar are leaning toward a tough time, with Qatar sending out the letter and reporting Israel’s “flagrant violation” to the UN, citing that Israel’s Netanyahu is leading the Middle East into Chaos. And Israel is issuing a warning to Qatar and other nations. At the same time, Israel still invaded Yemen, and 35 people were killed. 

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