FOMC Recap:
Several Federal Reserve members expect a slowing in economic growth and weak labor market conditions, albeit with inflation still “elevated.” However, they also reported that “higher tariffs were unlikely to have persistent effects on inflation,” reflecting a growing confidence toward achieving price stability. Additionally, note that these meeting minutes came way before the US employment report was released, and the FED still anticipates weakening already.
As per the report, “the committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation persists while the labor market weakens,” pointing toward the option of having a rate cut to save the labor market or holding the rate to constrain the inflation.
Opinion:
Regardless, I do believe the iconic line will go something like this in the next meeting: “We cannot depend on one data point,” or “We may need to see more data before the real decision.”
Another iconic part is the market actually priced in a 1% rate cut at the end of 2026, after Powell’s term as the Federal Reserve Chair ends. All of these dovish statements have pushed the market to believe that easing is coming and resulted in a higher gold price last night as well.
Trump committed to fire the Federal Reserve’s Lisa Cook
As per the Bloomberg source, Trump accused the FED’s Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud allegations, claiming she used false bank documents for better loan terms. However, this is also seen as a strategic move that Trump plans to balance the republican power toward the Central bank’s independence.
Ukraine and Russia Conflict Development
Italy proposed that allies with Ukraine will be decided within 24 hours, aiming to provide military support to strengthen Ukraine’s defense. Plus, the Netherlands will also send “two patriot air defense systems” to Ukraine as well, all are bringing in more support to end this conflict, and not the other way around.
