Weekly Data Summary Report
As of May 26, 2025
Below is the summary of the United States, which is mainly based on economic indicators, critical events related to President Donald Trump’s trade conflict with other trading partners, and GOLD prices within this week.
Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice.
The United States: The Federal Reserve (FED)
The Federal Reserve members are leaning toward a “wait and see” approach while addressing the inflation problem, labor shortage, and their concerns about the debt levels that have been rising for years. In fact, uncertainty in tariffs has been painfully undermining consumer and business confidence, which could possibly lead to softening in the labor market. However, if the debt problem adds on and arises further, then this confidence will definitely slump further. All of these could become anchors to hawkish speech and uncertainty, as some downgraded the rate cut projection, while some forecasters see a stagflationary outcome.
Therefore, the Federal Reserve will have two choices: either prioritize the inflation problem through tightening or prioritize the economic outlook through easing.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in more than 90% of holding the rate and starting the rate cut in September. While the Federal Reserve’s Bostic anticipates one rate cut this year as the inflation concerns increase.
Opinionated:
My guess on this depends heavily on the degree of inflation impact and debt level. If they fail to secure both, then easing would be my likely scenario, albeit in a long-term projection, probably holding the rate until the end of the year or even mid-next year. The reason would be that they might avoid choosing hiking, as this will add to their debt levels.
Other Important News:
- Trump delayed the 50% tariffs imposed on the European Union from June to July 9 this morning, which eased some tensions after the spark on Friday.
- Trump threatened Apple with a tariff of at least 25% if IPhones not made in the United States. And that he will come for SamSung as well if the production is not made in the US.
- US likely to impose 10% tariffs on indian imports while providing zero duty treatment on some product lines
- Trump remains irritated toward Russia and Ukraine, citing that he will “absolutely” consider new sanctions against Russia after Moscow launched missiles and drone strikes toward Ukraine.
- According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, Israel continued to strike and kill at least 53,939 Palestinians and wounded 122,797.
The market Reaction:
Gold price recovered and surged by 5.60% this week, given how the tension and uncertainty have once again sparked.
