Fundamental Analysis
Monday (Labor Day: Holiday)
Tuesday
Aside from the ISM purchasing managers index from the United States, another crucial event that will influence the gold price is the dismissal of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, which concerns the US central bank’s independence.
Although the Judge gave some time for them to seek additional claims, losing the FED’s cook from her position will likely open the path for Trump to initiate the easing even faster and could potentially lead to higher gold as well. Especially when Stephen Miran’s hearing as the nominee to the Federal Reserve Board (easing partner) will be on September 04.
Wednesday and Thursday
It also focuses on the other job data, such as JOLTS Job Openings and ADP employment changes, alongside the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
Friday
The main character of the week is the US employment report, including the nonfarm payroll, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, which will become the last job data before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision is released. All will determine the labor market conditions and whether this will align with what Federal Reserve Chair Powell expects in Jackhole—anticipating an increase in downside job risk.
The interest rate decision is on September 18, 2025, with 87.6% betting on the rate cut, while the remaining 12.4% are on hold. So, having weakening labor market conditions will support easing, and that could push the gold prices higher. And vice versa for stronger data.
***Remember, war conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, and the potential of Iran and US, will also factor into gold changes.
- Higher tension will fuel a higher gold price.
Technical Analysis
- Weekly Volume Profile: Price stays above the point of control, telling the bias of the market is in an uptrend scenario. The price break above the last three months’ range, 3254-3434 tells us gold possibly continues to go up in the long term.
- Discount Price is below 3394.
- Possible price projection is heading to the future 4000$.
