This report highlights key developments for the week ahead, providing investors with relevant context to support informed trading decisions. It covers both fundamental analysis—the primary drivers behind market movements—and technical analysis, including price action and key liquidity zones that traders should monitor.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a trading signal.

Fundamental Analysis

Three factors to focus on this week from the fundamental side:

Last Week Recap

Last week saw stronger-than-expected US economic activity, with both the Manufacturing PMI at 57.0 and Services PMI at 58.7 coming in significantly above forecasts. The stronger data showed that the US economy remains resilient, giving the Fed more room to raise interest rates if needed. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields continued to rise, driven by concerns over the growing US national debt, strong economic activity, and higher oil prices and inflation expectations. Higher yields can increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, putting further pressure on the precious metal. 

Geopolitical developments also remained in focus as Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and establish a 7-day truce over the weekend. The continued closure of the key shipping route pushed oil prices higher, adding to inflationary pressure and reinforcing expectations for higher interest rates. When the gold market reopened on Monday, gold fell by nearly 3%, reflecting the sharp shift in market expectations following the weekend developments. 

This Week’s Economic Calendar Events

This week is packed with key US economic releases, with PCE inflation and GDP data providing further insight into inflation and economic growth. A higher-than-expected PCE reading could reinforce expectations for further Fed rate hikes, potentially putting pressure on gold. However, the main focus remains Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Stronger-than-expected job growth could give the Fed more room to raise interest rates, weighing on gold, while weaker employment data could reduce rate-hike expectations and provide support for the precious metal.

US-Iran Conflict Back in Focus

Following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and establish a seven-day truce last weekend, markets have refocused on the ongoing US-Iran conflict. While most of Iran’s delegation has left New York following last week’s UN General Assembly, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has remained behind to engage with Qatari mediators in efforts to revive negotiations. US officials are also reportedly holding separate discussions with mediators to explore a potential agreement. With negotiations remaining uncertain, further developments and headlines surrounding the conflict could trigger additional market volatility, particularly in oil and gold. 

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis: Gold Market Overview — September 2026

Key Technical Zones

• Current Price: $4,150.00 — The market is currently experiencing a short-term bounce after successfully testing the key weekly support zone.
• Weekly Point of Interest (POI) / Initial Support: $4,105.00 — The upper boundary of a major historical volume cluster. This level has acted as a strong initial support and remains the critical floor buyers must defend.
• Overhead Resistance (Recent POC): $4,281.93 — The Point of Control from the recent consolidation phase before the structural breakdown occurred. This level now acts as major overhead resistance and the primary upside target for the current relief rally.
• Major Support Floor: $4,051.00 (Black Line) — This represents the massive volume cluster and Point of Control from the previous accumulation phase. It stands as the ultimate downside structural floor if the $4,105 POI fails to hold.

Trading Strategy

• Bearish Bias (Relief Rally in Progress): While the immediate momentum is attempting a bullish bounce from the $4,105 Weekly POI, the broader trend remains heavily bearish following the sharp breakdown from $4,281.93. The current upward movement to $4,150 is considered a relief rally within this overarching downtrend.
• Continuation/Pullback Scenario:
  • Pullback (Relief Rally Continuation): With the price holding the $4,105 POI and currently trading at $4,150, the market could continue this relief rally to retest the previous breakdown level at $4,281.93. This overhead resistance would offer a high-probability opportunity to evaluate short entries aligned with the broader downtrend.
  • Continuation (Downside Break): If selling pressure resumes and the price reverses to cleanly break below the $4,105 Weekly POI, the bearish momentum will likely accelerate, flushing down to test the major structural floor near $4,051.00.