This report highlights key developments for the week ahead, providing investors with relevant context to support informed trading decisions. It covers both fundamental analysis—the primary drivers behind market movements—and technical analysis, including price action and key liquidity zones that traders should monitor. Disclaimer: This material is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a trading signal. Fundamental Analysis Three factors to focus on this week from the fundamental side: Last Week Recap Last week saw key central banks take different approaches to monetary policy. The Fed raised interest rates, with the decision passing unanimously at 12–0, as inflation remains elevated while the labor market has remained resilient. The Fed’s latest dot plot also points to another rate hike by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the BoE held interest rates following a 6–3 vote, with three policymakers voting for a 25-basis-point increase. The decision came despite UK inflation remaining elevated at 3.1%, above the Bank’s 2% target. The BoJ also raised rates by 25 basis points, but the Japanese Yen weakened against the US Dollar following the decision. The move passed 7–2, and the lack of a clear signal for another near-term hike appeared to disappoint investors who had already positioned for faster policy tightening. As a result, some previously accumulated Yen positions were unwound, illustrating how a rate hike can still be followed by currency weakness when the accompanying guidance is more cautious than expected. Yen Faces Increased Intervention Risk The Japanese Yen initially weakened against the US Dollar last Friday despite the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate by 25 basis points. However, the Yen later recovered after reports emerged that Japanese authorities had conducted a “rate check” in the foreign-exchange market. A rate check involves authorities contacting market participants to ask for current exchange-rate quotes and is widely viewed as a potential preliminary step before direct currency intervention. While a rate check does not mean that intervention has taken place, it can strengthen the Yen by increasing concerns that authorities could soon buy Yen and sell US Dollars to slow excessive Yen weakness. This can encourage traders to reduce USD/JPY long positions, putting downward pressure on USD/JPY and supporting the Yen. The intervention risk may remain a focus this week, particularly as Japan observes holidays from September 21 to 23, which could result in lighter trading liquidity. Lower liquidity can make currency movements more volatile, meaning relatively smaller orders or official actions could have a larger impact on the exchange rate. Xi–Trump Summit The upcoming Xi–Trump summit on September 24 will be closely watched for developments on the U.S.–China trade truce, Taiwan, and China’s stance on the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict. On trade, investors will look for signs that the current détente can be extended, particularly regarding tariffs, technology restrictions, and critical-mineral exports. Meanwhile, any changes in rhetoric surrounding Taiwan could influence broader U.S.–China geopolitical tensions and risk sentiment. However, the summit’s potential impact on the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz may be particularly important for markets. A stronger Chinese push for de-escalation or reopening the Strait could ease concerns over oil-supply disruptions, potentially lowering oil prices and inflation expectations, while reducing safe-haven demand for gold. Conversely, limited progress on Iran or renewed tensions over trade or Taiwan could keep geopolitical risk elevated and increase volatility across oil, gold, the USD, and global equities. Technical Analysis XAU/USD Technical Overview
Market Daily Dose: Fed, BoE and BoJ Announce Latest Interest Rate Decisions
Fed Raises Interest Rates for the First Time Since 2023 The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 0.25% for the first time since July 2023, with FOMC members voting unanimously 12–0. The Fed noted that inflation remains elevated, while economic activity continues to show resilience, supporting the continuation of a restrictive monetary policy. In general, higher interest rates can put pressure on gold prices because gold is a non-yielding asset. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold can also increase. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot indicates the possibility of one additional rate hike in 2026, while the median projection for 2027 remains at 4.1%. BoE Holds Rates While BoJ Raises Rates The Bank of England (BoE) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting at this level. However, the decision was split 6–3, with three members voting for a 0.25% rate hike to 4%. The BoE highlighted rising energy prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a key inflation risk, noting that inflation could remain elevated for longer if energy prices stay high. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, with a 7–2 vote. The move was widely expected and was aimed at limiting the risk of inflation exceeding the BoJ’s 2% target. Despite the BoJ’s rate hike, USDJPY rose around 0.6%, indicating that the Japanese Yen weakened against the U.S. Dollar. This highlights that a rate hike does not necessarily mean a currency will strengthen, as market expectations and the outlook for future policy can also influence exchange rates. For gold, both decisions reinforce the importance of global interest-rate expectations. Higher interest rates generally increase the Opportunity Cost of holding gold, since gold is a non-yielding asset, which can create pressure on gold prices.
Market Daily Dose: Fed Raises Interest Rates for the First Time Since 2023
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points early Thursday morning at 2:00 AM (GMT+8), marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. Why Did the Fed Raise Rates? The Fed’s latest statement continued to highlight persistent inflationary pressure. The statement noted that “inflation remains elevated” and said that the latest policy action would support a timelier return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. At the same time, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. The Fed stated that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, while domestic spending remains resilient. It also highlighted strong productivity growth and robust capital investment, while job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. This combination of persistent inflation and resilient economic activity gives the Fed room to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. What Could Happen to Interest Rates Next? Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continued to avoid committing to a specific path for future interest-rate decisions, leaving the next moves dependent on incoming economic data. However, the latest Fed dot plot provides some insight into policymakers’ current expectations. The median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 4.1%, compared with 3.8% in the previous June projection. This suggests that policymakers, on average, see room for one additional 25-basis-point rate hike before the end of 2026, potentially bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. The median projection remains at 4.1% for 2027, suggesting that policymakers currently expect rates to remain around this level through next year. The median then falls to 3.9% in 2028, indicating that some rate cuts could begin by then. However, these projections are not commitments, and the actual path of interest rates will depend on future economic and inflation data. What Does This Mean for Gold? Higher interest rates generally create pressure on gold because gold does not generate interest income. As interest rates and yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold can increase. With the Fed now raising rates and its latest projections pointing to the possibility of another hike before the end of 2026, the macroeconomic backdrop remains relatively restrictive for gold. However, the future direction of gold will still depend on other factors, including U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, inflation data, and expectations for future Fed policy. The key question for markets may therefore shift from whether the Fed has started hiking again to how far the Fed is willing to take rates and how long it intends to keep them elevated.
Weekly Market Recap & Outlook as of September 15, 2026
This report highlights key developments for the week ahead, providing investors with relevant context to support informed trading decisions. It covers both fundamental analysis—the primary drivers behind market movements—and technical analysis, including price action and key liquidity zones that traders should monitor. Disclaimer: This material is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a trading signal. Fundamental Analysis Four factors to focus on this week from the fundamental side: Last Week Recap – U.S. Treasury Announces Larger Bond Buyback as Yields Continue to Rise A major development this week was the U.S. Treasury’s announcement of its first bond buyback operation under its expanded buyback program. The Treasury announced that it would buy back up to $6 billion of longer-dated Treasury securities, exceeding the previously expected $4 billion amount after the Treasury announced in August that it would at least double the maximum size of its buyback operations for the 10–20-year and 20–30-year maturity sectors. The announcement came as U.S. Treasury yields were already trading at elevated levels amid concerns over rising government debt, persistent inflationary pressures, and higher energy prices. While a larger-than-expected buyback could theoretically support Treasury prices and push yields lower by increasing demand for existing bonds, the initial market reaction was the opposite. The 30-year Treasury yield rose from 5.260% to 5.307%, while the 20-year yield increased from 5.269% to 5.312% and the 10-year yield climbed from 4.812% to 4.851%. The unexpected rise in yields also weighed on gold, which initially fell approximately 0.65% following the announcement. However, gold experienced significant two-way volatility and later recovered much of its initial decline, returning toward pre-announcement levels. The reaction highlighted that the larger $6 billion buyback announcement was not enough to offset broader concerns surrounding Treasury supply, inflation, and energy prices. Last Week Recap – U.S. CPI Comes In-Line as Gold Gives Back Initial Gains Another key market development last week was the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The annual U.S. CPI came in at 3.4%, in line with market expectations. Normally, a higher-than-expected CPI reading can put pressure on gold by increasing expectations for tighter monetary policy, while a lower-than-expected reading can support gold by strengthening expectations for monetary-policy easing. As the CPI data did not come in hotter than expected, gold initially reacted positively and posted a sharp rebound following the release. The initial rally may have been driven by market positioning ahead of the release. With some traders potentially positioned for a hotter inflation reading, the in-line 3.4% result was viewed as less hawkish than feared, allowing gold to recover as those expectations were unwound. However, the rally was not sustained, and gold has since given back most of its initial gains. Despite coming in line with forecasts, 3.4% inflation remains elevated and is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This means that the CPI data did not provide a strong enough signal of cooling inflation to significantly strengthen expectations for faster monetary-policy easing. Overall, the CPI release highlighted that market expectations can be just as important as the headline data itself. While the in-line result initially supported gold, the broader inflation picture remained a concern, limiting the sustainability of the rally. This Week’s Focus – FOMC Meeting The main event for financial markets this week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday at 1:00 AM (GMT+7). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 93.6% probability of a rate hike at this meeting. With such a high probability already reflected in market expectations, it is likely that a rate hike itself has largely been priced in. As a result, the market’s reaction may depend less on the rate decision and more on what the Federal Reserve signals about the path of interest rates after the meeting. The key focus will be whether the Fed signals that further rate hikes could follow in upcoming meetings. A hawkish outlook, suggesting that additional rate hikes may be needed, could strengthen the U.S. Dollar (USD) and push U.S. Treasury yields higher. Higher yields and a stronger dollar could, in turn, put pressure on Gold. On the other hand, a dovish outlook, suggesting that further rate hikes may be limited or that this could be a “one-and-done” hike, could weaken the USD and Treasury yields. This could provide additional support for Gold. Overall, while the rate decision itself is highly anticipated, the Fed’s forward guidance and tone may be the more important market driver, as investors assess whether this rate hike marks the beginning of further tightening or the final hike in the current cycle. BoE and BoJ Interest Rate Decisions Following the FOMC meeting, markets will also turn their attention to the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ), which are scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions later this week. The BoE is widely expected to hold its interest rate at 3.75%, while the BoJ is expected to raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. Beyond the rate decisions themselves, markets will closely watch the hawkish or dovish guidance from both central banks. A more hawkish BoE or BoJ could strengthen the British Pound (GBP) or Japanese Yen (JPY) respectively, potentially putting downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar (USD). A weaker USD could then provide support for Gold, as the precious metal becomes relatively cheaper for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, dovish guidance from either central bank could weaken its currency and support the USD, potentially putting pressure on Gold. The BoJ’s expected rate hike may be particularly important, as a stronger JPY can contribute to broader USD weakness and create a cascading effect across currency markets and, ultimately, Gold. Overall, while the FOMC remains the main focus this week, the BoE and BoJ decisions could add further volatility to the USD and Gold markets as traders reassess the
Market Daily Dose: Apple’s iPhone Duo Debut: New Growth Potential and the Market’s Reaction
Apple unveiled its latest iPhone lineup, including the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the new iPhone Duo, during its “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9. The event marked an important moment for the company as it introduced its first foldable iPhone while also featuring the first major product keynote led by newly appointed CEO John Ternus. The iPhone Duo was the headline announcement, marking Apple’s entry into the increasingly competitive foldable smartphone market. Starting at $1,999, the device is positioned firmly in the premium segment and represents a significant expansion of Apple’s existing iPhone product strategy. A New Product Category for Apple Unlike previous iPhone launches, Apple’s latest event was not simply about upgrading an existing product. The introduction of the iPhone Duo places Apple into an entirely new product category. The foldable device features a larger internal display designed to provide a more tablet-like experience while retaining the portability of a smartphone. With a starting price of $1,999, the Duo is also Apple’s most expensive iPhone to date. The move comes as foldable smartphones remain a relatively small portion of the overall smartphone market. However, the category is expected to be one of the few areas of growth within an otherwise challenging smartphone industry. According to IDC, global foldable smartphone shipments are expected to reach approximately 22.9 million units in 2026, before growing to around 27 million units in 2027. IDC forecasts that Apple could ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones in 2027, potentially giving the company roughly 40% of the global foldable smartphone market. IDC also estimates that Apple could ship around 10 million units during the first 12 months of the product’s availability. While this volume may appear relatively modest compared with Apple’s overall iPhone business, the premium pricing of the Duo could help offset the lower unit volume. This highlights an important aspect of Apple’s strategy: growth does not necessarily have to come from selling more devices if Apple can increase the value generated from each device. A New Era Under John Ternus The significance of the event extends beyond the products themselves. John Ternus took over as Apple’s CEO on September 1, succeeding Tim Cook, and the “Surprise and Shine” event marked his first major product keynote in the role. For that reason, the launch can be viewed as a potential starting point for a new era at Apple. Ternus inherits a company that has spent years building its ecosystem around the iPhone, Apple Watch, AirPods and other established products. His first major keynote, however, introduced both a new product category and a new leadership era at the same time. The iPhone Duo could therefore become an important test of Ternus’s approach to product innovation. Apple is not the first company to introduce foldable smartphones, with Samsung, Huawei and other manufacturers already competing in the category. Instead, Apple is attempting to enter the market later while leveraging its large customer base, ecosystem and premium brand positioning. How Did Investors React? Despite the significance of the announcement, Apple’s stock did not immediately surge following the event. Apple shares closed September 9 down approximately 0.3%, even as the company unveiled its new products. At first glance, this may appear surprising given the importance of the iPhone Duo announcement. However, the initial decline should also be viewed in the context of the broader market environment. U.S. equities were under pressure that day as oil prices moved above $100 per barrel, Treasury yields rose, and investors remained concerned about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. There is also another factor that investors often consider around major Apple product launches: the possibility of a “sell-the-news” reaction. Investors typically form expectations ahead of major events, and some of those expectations may already be reflected in a company’s share price before the announcement. Once the event actually takes place, investors may sell shares to lock in profits if the announcement fails to exceed those expectations. This appeared to be visible during Apple’s event. According to Barron’s, Apple shares were down nearly 2% toward the end of the keynote, before recovering toward the end of the trading session. However, the reaction became more positive in the following session. On September 10, Apple shares rose approximately 3.56% to close at $326.57, significantly outperforming the broader U.S. market. The Nasdaq Composite fell around 0.65%, while the S&P 500 declined around 0.58% during the same session. This divergence is notable because it suggests that investors ultimately viewed the new product lineup more positively after having additional time to digest the announcement. What Could the iPhone Duo Mean for Apple? The immediate financial impact of the iPhone Duo will depend on several factors, including production capacity, consumer demand and Apple’s ability to maintain premium pricing. The first-year shipment estimate of around 10 million units is relatively small compared with Apple’s overall iPhone business. However, Apple’s strategy may not require the Duo to become a mass-market product immediately. A starting price of $1,999 allows Apple to target consumers willing to pay a premium for a new form factor. IDC also expects. Therefore, the success of the iPhone Duo should not be judged solely by unit sales. Investors will also be watching whether Apple can use the new category to increase its average selling price, revenue and margins while strengthening its position in the premium smartphone market. For now, the market’s initial reaction appears encouraging. Apple’s shares initially fell during the launch before recovering, followed by a stronger 3.56% gain in the following regular trading session. Whether this marks the beginning of a sustained new growth cycle for Apple, however, will depend on how consumers respond once the iPhone Duo reaches the market and whether Apple can successfully turn foldable smartphones from a niche category into another major part of its ecosystem. For investors, the iPhone Duo is therefore more than another iPhone upgrade. It represents Apple’s entry into a new market, a test of its new CEO’s product vision, and a
Market Daily Dose: U.S. Treasury Announces $6 Billion Bond Buyback, but Treasury Yields Rise
The U.S. Treasury has announced its first bond buyback operation following its August announcement that it would at least double the maximum size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities. The maximum size was increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation for securities in the 10–20-year and 20–30-year maturity sectors. The actual buyback operation is scheduled to take place later today. However, the announcement of the operation has already triggered a notable reaction across the Treasury and gold markets. Buyback Size Increased to $6 Billion On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would buy back up to $6 billion of longer-dated Treasury securities in its upcoming operation. This was larger than the previously expected $4 billion amount, representing an additional increase in the potential size of the buyback. Under normal market conditions, a larger Treasury buyback could provide support to longer-dated Treasury prices by increasing demand for existing securities. Since bond prices and yields generally move in opposite directions, stronger demand for bonds could potentially push Treasury yields lower. However, the market reaction to the announcement was the opposite. Treasury Yields Rise Despite Larger Buyback Following the announcement, yields across key longer-dated Treasury securities moved higher: Treasury Yield Before Announcement After Announcement 10-Year 4.812% 4.851% 20-Year 5.269% 5.312% 30-Year 5.260% 5.307% The rise in yields suggests that the larger-than-expected $6 billion buyback announcement was not enough to significantly improve sentiment in the Treasury market. While the announced amount exceeded the previously expected $4 billion, some analysts attributed the muted reaction to the fact that the increase was not large enough to create a significant surprise for the market. Broader Pressure on Treasury Yields The upward move in Treasury yields comes against a broader backdrop of factors putting pressure on the bond market. U.S. government debt has recently surpassed $40 trillion, raising concerns over the growing supply of Treasury securities and the government’s long-term borrowing needs. At the same time, inflation fears remain elevated amid the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran war. Energy prices have also added to inflation concerns, with crude oil rising sharply and briefly moving above $100 per barrel on Wednesday. Higher energy prices could contribute to renewed inflationary pressure, potentially reducing expectations for faster monetary-policy easing. These factors have continued to weigh on longer-dated Treasury securities, limiting the positive impact that the larger buyback announcement might otherwise have had on bond prices. Gold Reaction The rise in Treasury yields also initially weighed on gold, with the precious metal falling approximately 0.65% following the buyback announcement. However, gold experienced significant two-way volatility, as reflected by both the upper and lower wicks of the candlestick. This indicates strong buying and selling pressure around the announcement, rather than a straightforward decline. Gold has since retraced much of its initial decline and moved back toward pre-announcement levels, suggesting that the initial reaction to the rise in Treasury yields has partially faded. With the actual Treasury buyback operation scheduled for later today, market participants will be watching to see whether the purchase itself provides additional support to longer-dated Treasury prices and potentially reverses some of the initial rise in yields.
Market Daily Dose: Explosions Reported Near Kharg Island as Middle East Tensions Escalate, Oil Nears $100
Reports of explosions being heard near Kharg Island, one of Iran’s key oil export hubs, emerged at around 1:55 AM (GMT+7), raising concerns over potential disruptions to oil supply in the region. The reports came as tensions surrounding the war have continued to escalate over the past several days, adding further uncertainty to the outlook for energy markets. Following the news, oil prices briefly jumped 0.88%, while gold prices briefly slipped 0.22%. The contrasting reaction highlights the market’s focus on the potential inflationary impact of higher oil prices. Higher oil prices can increase transportation and production costs, potentially keeping inflation elevated. This could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed), creating downward pressure on gold. Middle East Tensions Continue to Escalate The reports near Kharg Island came amid a broader escalation in tensions across the region. On September 8, reports emerged that Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen launched strikes on four cities in Saudi Arabia, including Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Najran. The developments have raised concerns that the conflict could increasingly threaten key energy infrastructure and transportation routes across the Middle East. With risks surrounding major oil-producing regions and critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, markets are closely watching for signs of further disruptions to global oil supplies. Oil Approaches the $100 Mark Despite the escalation in tensions, oil has yet to break above the psychologically important $100 per barrel level. Brent crude is now trading around $99 per barrel, putting the benchmark within striking distance of the key level. If tensions escalate further and begin to cause more significant disruptions to oil production or transportation, oil could potentially break above $100 per barrel. Such a move could have broader implications for financial markets, particularly if higher energy prices translate into stronger inflation expectations. For gold, the potential impact could occur through a chain reaction: Escalating tensions → Higher oil supply risks → Higher oil prices → Stronger inflation expectations → Greater expectations for tighter Fed policy → Pressure on gold While geopolitical tensions can traditionally support gold through safe-haven demand, a sharp increase in oil prices could create a counteracting force by raising inflation concerns and reducing expectations for monetary policy easing. This dynamic could become particularly important as markets remain focused on US CPI, the last major inflation data release ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. If oil prices continue to rise and reinforce concerns over persistent inflation, markets could become more cautious about expectations for Fed rate cuts—or even begin pricing in a greater possibility of tighter policy.
Market Daily Dose: Japanese Yen Strength and Rising Oil Prices Shape Gold Outlook Ahead of the FOMC Meeting
Japanese Yen Strengthens as BoJ Rate Hike Bets Grow The Japanese Yen continued to strengthen against the US Dollar, with the USD/JPY pair closing Monday down 0.67% and falling to its lowest level since February. The Yen’s recent strength has been supported by several factors, with Japan’s latest economic data adding further momentum to expectations of tighter monetary policy. Japan’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates at its meeting next week. This comes after several BoJ officials, including Governor Ueda and board member Takata, made hawkish remarks over the past week regarding the possibility of further rate hikes. Meanwhile, suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, which reportedly began last week, may have also contributed to the Yen’s recent rally. The combination of stronger-than-expected economic data, hawkish BoJ expectations, and potential intervention has therefore placed further upward pressure on the Japanese Yen. The Yen’s strength has also spilled over into broader US Dollar weakness, which could provide additional support for gold prices. Traders should therefore keep a close eye on the USD/JPY pair, particularly for any impulsive moves, as significant movements in the pair could potentially spill over into the gold market. US-Iran Tensions Push Oil Higher, but Gold Decouples The recent escalation between the United States and Iran has pushed geopolitical risks higher once again, with both sides resuming exchanges of fire. Iran has threatened further retaliation against any new US attacks, while US forces have reportedly struck Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub. At the same time, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed as concerns over further escalation grow. These developments have renewed fears of supply disruptions and raised the possibility that the conflict could remain prolonged. As a result, Brent crude rose to around $98.46 per barrel, while WTI climbed to around $93.90 per barrel. The renewed conflict is therefore putting upward pressure on oil prices, as markets price in a higher risk of prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. This is particularly important for markets because sustained higher oil prices can feed into broader inflation through increased energy costs. However, oil prices appear to be increasingly decoupling from gold. Despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the move has so far had a limited impact on the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. With the FOMC meeting next week approaching rapidly, the market appears to be increasingly focused on the view that inflation remains elevated, with the possibility of another rate hike already being priced in. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing a 58.4% probability of a rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. This suggests that, rather than viewing the latest oil-price surge as a reason to materially shift rate expectations, traders may already be positioning for tighter monetary policy. For gold, this distinction is important. Higher oil prices would normally create inflationary pressure and could weigh on gold if they strengthen expectations for higher interest rates. However, if rate-hike expectations are already sufficiently priced in, further increases in oil prices may have a more limited impact on gold. With the FOMC meeting approaching, traders should therefore pay close attention to whether incoming inflation data and Fed expectations continue to outweigh geopolitical developments in determining gold’s next move.
Weekly Market Recap & Outlook as of September 7, 2026
This report highlights key developments for the week ahead, providing investors with relevant context to support informed trading decisions. It covers both fundamental analysis—the primary drivers behind market movements—and technical analysis, including price action and key liquidity zones that traders should monitor. Disclaimer: This material is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a trading signal. Fundamental Analysis Four factors to focus on this week from the fundamental side: Last Week Recap – Yen Strengthens Against the US Dollar and Strong NFP Data One of the biggest market developments last week was the sharp surge in the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The move caused the USD to weaken broadly, with the decline in the dollar spilling over into other asset classes. Gold, in particular, benefited from the weaker USD and posted strong gains during the session. The sudden appreciation of the JPY initially raised speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened in the foreign exchange market by selling USD and buying JPY. However, there has been no official confirmation of any intervention. Instead, analysts pointed to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday as a potential catalyst for the repricing of the JPY. Ueda indicated that the BoJ would discuss whether to raise interest rates at its September 17–18 meeting as policymakers assess growing inflation risks. He also reiterated that the central bank intends to continue raising rates if economic and price developments remain in line with its projections. The market then shifted focus to the U.S. labor market on Friday, when the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report came in significantly stronger than expected at 162K, well above the 55K forecast. The stronger-than-expected employment data reinforced expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve, consistent with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium a few weeks earlier. Warsh highlighted that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target while the labor market continues to show resilience. As expectations for tighter monetary policy increased following the strong NFP report, Gold gave back a significant portion of its gains from Wednesday. Overall, last week’s price action highlighted how quickly shifts in central-bank expectations can influence the U.S. Dollar and, in turn, Gold. The contrast between the BoJ’s potentially more hawkish policy outlook and stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data made monetary policy expectations a key driver of market movements throughout the week. This Week’s Economic Calendar Events This week’s economic calendar is relatively quiet, with the main focus on key central-bank and inflation-related data. On Tuesday, September 8, Japan’s Q2 GDP is scheduled for release at 7:50 (GMT+8), with the market expecting growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, down from the previous 0.5%. The data could influence expectations for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook and, in turn, create volatility in the Japanese Yen. Later in the week, attention will shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, September 10. Markets currently expect the ECB to raise its main interest rate from 2.40% to 2.65%. The accompanying ECB press conference will also be closely watched for signals on the central bank’s future policy direction. The main focus, however, will be on U.S. inflation data on Friday, September 11, when the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release at 20:30 (GMT+8). With the report coming just days before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting, it will be one of the last major economic data releases available to policymakers before the decision. A hotter-than-expected CPI print could strengthen expectations for a more hawkish Fed and increase the chances of a rate hike, potentially supporting the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold. Conversely, a cooler-than-expected or in-line print could ease rate-hike expectations and potentially provide support for gold. US Treasury Buyback Expansion Begins This Week The US Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program is set to begin this week, following its announcement last month that it would increase the size of its 10-year and 20-year Treasury buybacks from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move comes after long-term Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in nearly 20 years, prompting the Treasury to increase its efforts to support liquidity in the long-end of the bond market. Importantly, the $4 billion figure may not be the upper limit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that individual buyback operations could potentially exceed the announced $4 billion size. A larger-than-expected operation could therefore have a stronger impact on long-term Treasury yields and the broader market. The expanded buybacks are generally expected to put downward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and potentially weaken the US Dollar, which could provide additional support for dollar-denominated assets such as Gold. If the Treasury were to conduct buybacks significantly larger than $4 billion per operation, Gold could see an even stronger upside reaction as yields and the US Dollar come under greater pressure. With the program beginning this week, traders should closely monitor announcements and comments from the US Treasury and its officials for any indication that the actual buyback size could exceed expectations. ECB Set to Raise Rates as Energy Inflation Remains Elevated The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 10 meeting, bringing the main interest rate to 2.65%. The expected hike comes as eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, well above the ECB’s 2% target, with rising energy prices being the main driver of the increase. However, the rate hike itself is unlikely to come as a major surprise to markets, as it is already largely priced in. Instead, traders will be watching the ECB’s comments for clues about whether further rate increases could follow. While persistent energy-driven inflation could keep the ECB on a tightening path, concerns over economic growth may limit how aggressively policymakers are willing to raise rates. A recent Reuters poll found that most
Market Daily Dose: Fed Governor Waller’s Dovish Inflation View and Yen Surge Weaken the US Dollar, Supporting Gold
Fed Governor Waller Sees Signs of Easing Inflation, Contrasting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he is leaning towards holding interest rates at the September FOMC meeting, provided there is no significant upside surprise in the upcoming CPI report. While Waller acknowledged that inflation remains “meaningfully above” the Fed’s 2% target, he pointed to recent trends as evidence that inflationary pressures may be easing. Although annual PCE and core PCE inflation stood at 3.7% and 3.3% respectively in July, Waller argued that annual figures may not provide the clearest picture of current inflation trends. He highlighted that the three-month PCE inflation rate has fallen from 4.76% in February to 3.05% currently, suggesting that underlying price pressures have been moderating. Waller’s assessment contrasts with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, where he emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The differing views from Fed officials have added uncertainty to the outlook for monetary policy ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Following Waller’s comments, the probability of a September rate hike fell from around 60% to 50.2% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The shift in rate expectations supported gold, with the precious metal rising 1.12% following his remarks, as lower interest-rate expectations generally benefit gold due to its lack of yield compared with interest-bearing assets. Suspected Japanese Yen Intervention Pressures the US Dollar The Japanese Yen strengthened sharply against the US Dollar over the past two days, fueling speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened in the currency market. On Wednesday, the Yen jumped 1.23% against the US Dollar, followed by another 2.14% gain yesterday. The moves came after USD/JPY crossed the 160 level, which has previously been viewed as a key threshold for potential Japanese intervention. The sharp appreciation has raised comparisons with the last reported joint intervention by Japan and the US on July 31. However, there has been no official confirmation from Japanese authorities that intervention has taken place this time. Instead, some market participants believe the Yen’s recent strength may have been driven by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments regarding the possibility of a rate hike in September. Regardless of the cause, the Yen’s rapid appreciation has placed pressure on the US Dollar, which can be supportive for gold as the precious metal is typically inversely correlated with the Dollar. The weaker US Dollar may therefore have been another contributing factor behind gold’s rally over the past two days, alongside shifting expectations for US monetary policy.
