Gold price movement: 5 factors to consider Here are some events that have been pushing the gold prices around.  Factor 1: Federal Reserve Chair Faces Criminal Referral House GOP Representative Anna Paulina Luna has formally referred Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Department of Justice for a criminal investigation, accusing him of perjury. This comes when Luna claims Powell misrepresented and cost overruns on the new renovations at the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building and maintenance. Although Powell has denied all of these accusations, if this evidence is proven, then Powell could face up to 5 years in prison and fines.  Factor 2: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Intensifies The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, with over 400 drones and 24 missiles striking Ukrainian targets overnight, including civilian shelters in substations.  All of these attacks led to a significant rise in casualties. Therefore, Norway and the Netherlands have pledged to supply missiles to Ukraine, while French companies plan to manufacture drones in Ukraine to support their defense efforts.  In short, the majority are supporting Ukraine, which aims to end this conflict. Ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine are scheduled for July 24-25 in Turkey.  Factor 3: Israel-Gaza  Meanwhile, the Israel-Gaza conflict continues, with at least 60 Palestinians killed, and starvation is seen everywhere. As a result, other countries, including the UK, France, Italy, and Japan, issued a collective demand for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict.  → They want to press for de-escalation and a resolution to the ongoing violence. Factor 4: Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Talks Iran has expressed willingness to engage in nuclear negotiations with Russia and China, signaling a potential shift in Tehran’s stance. This follows a fragile ceasefire with Israel and the US after US airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities. According to a Trump post earlier this morning, “Damages are very severe; they are destroyed,” while calling out CNN a fake news.  Factor 5: Trade Talk  U.S.-China discussions are reportedly leaning toward a positive side, with potential talks on Russian and Iranian oil trades on the table. Especially when China becomes the largest purchaser of Iranian oil.  Meanwhile, trade talks with the European Union remain stalled, though both sides are eager to reach an agreement soon. ***Important*** To conclude, factors 1 and 2 are causing the gold prices to go upward, where factor 3 can partly contribute as long as the fight remains. Yet, if the ceasefire exists once again, then Factor 3 will become a factor to decrease the gold price.  As for factor 4 and 5, these are paving some path for more certainty, which could also lead to gold prices declining as well. 

Market Update: The Federal Reserve and Trump’s new executive order. The Federal Reserve Recent strong data, including retail sales, consumer inflation, and solid labor data, are all pushing the Federal Reserve (FED) to reaffirm its holding of high interest rates for longer. Even the FED’s Kugler has also proven to stand on this side, while the FED’s Daly suggested going with two rate cuts this year.  In fact, the FED’s Kugler estimates June PCE inflation is 2.5% versus the 2% target, with core at 2.8%, both higher than in May, which is set to release on July 31, 2025.  The projection now stands with holding the interest rate in August, and the initial rate cut would be in September, with 50.8%, followed by 41.2% priced in for the December rate cut.  Regardless, even if Trump was clear that he’s unlikely to fire Powell, he also signed the new executive order on Thursday regards to “new types of non-careers for federal Reserves”. This was created to advance the administration’s policies that align with the president’s agenda.  However, this also raises concerns over the neutrality, like the traditional one, since this role is more likely to risk politicizing the federal workforce and loyalty to a political side. This also means that President Donald Trump will hold more power through this role. Despite this role playing a small part in the unemployment rate, it is significant when it comes to power or a move to lower the interest rate. Trump is set to open the $9 trillion US retirement market to crypto investments. This refers to the investment options for American workers, allowing them to allocate retirement savings to higher-risk, potentially higher-return assets. Extra info: Trade with the EU and Canada is still under discussion, albeit they both know that the trade agreement won’t be anywhere near their expected desires.  So what do all of these tell you?  The market still showed a mixed picture, depending on which side held more power. If the market is swayed by Trump’s power, they will price in more upward gold prices, and vice versa for Powell’s power.

Market Mover: US Retail Sales, Trump’s sign executive, Netflix Earnings Report. After Trump kept testing the market over Fed Chair Powell’s removal while swaying the attention from the Epstein case, now the anticipation shall focus on the US consumer spending—retail sales.  As per analysts, the monthly projection could come higher to 0.1%, which shall be seen as better demand compared to prior data and possibly pause the rate decision even further. But that’s not always the case. The actual data can come differently. So, what will the result be today? Extra info: Trump is expected to sign executive orders on Thursday at 16:00 ET (around 3:00 AM GMT+7), albeit the specific topic is still uncertain.  Stock Market: Taiwan Semiconductor’s earnings report beat the forecast, while Netflix is expected to release tonight as well.

U.S. Markets React to Trump-Fed’s Stance amid Surprising Producer Price Index Decline President Donald Trump President Donald Trump recently dismissed speculations that he would seek to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell directly after discussing the possible move with the lawmaker.  This comes when the FED Chair Powell denied bringing the interest rate down as Trump desires, with the purpose of seeing the potential of rising inflation that could lead to the stagflation scenario.  While the lawmaker gave support for this move, Trump decided not to move the plan forward with the excuse of having him under a fraud investigation. Especially when several market participants voiced concerns over the long-term run in both the market and the economy.  So this also means that if the fraud is found, then Jerome Powell could face removal before his term ends, potentially increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut, despite recent strong economic data. However, any final decision may take months, and high market volatility is inevitable. ***Raising the probability of a rate cut → likely to push the gold up.***  The Federal Reserve has not issued an official statement, though Fed official John Williams emphasized, “Central bank independence is very important.” Wholesales Inflation  The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell below both forecasts and prior figures, suggesting that businesses and manufacturers are absorbing higher U.S. tariffs rather than passing them on to consumers. This outcome contrasts with economists’ expectations of rising prices. The market re-priced the odds of the interest rate decision once again after these two factors came into play, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising to 56.2% from 53.5%. The stock and bond markets reacted negatively to the news, while gold prices surged by approximately 1.2% amid reports of the potential leadership change at the Federal Reserve.

Gold Prices Dip as Persistent US Inflation Pressures Markets Recent US inflation data revealed an increase from the previous period, while the core inflation, stripping out the energy and food costs, remains stubbornly above restrictive levels.  → All of these indicate persistent upward cost pressures, placing the Federal Reserve in a precarious position, especially amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Even President Omair Sharif’s report highlights that “tariffs are beginning to bite,” suggesting that these costs are now being passed on to consumers. According to Federal Reserve Logan, “the base scenario is that monetary policy needs to remain firm for a while longer to reduce inflation,” while also reiterating the risk of having “deeper economic scars”. Both the US and Canada are feeling the impact, with inflation rising and potentially delaying central bank rate cuts. Especially when Trump’s tariff deadline on August 1st is approaching, with a potential of facing a 35% tariff rate for Canadian goods imports.  Market Reaction Higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are bad news for bond yields, as the yield reacts to the changes in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance, particularly in short-term yield, which is known for its sensitivity. Both the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields surged after the data release. Gold also experienced a sharp drop to $3,322 per ounce before recovering. This comes when the market is currently repricing its rate decision forecasts, with the CME FedWatch Tool even indicating a possibility of an interest rate hike next year. *** The longer the Federal Reserve holds the interest rate dear to their heart, → A Strong dollar would disfavor the gold price. Political Response Shortly after the inflation data was released, President Donald Trump reiterated his desire for lower interest rates, aiming to ease the bond market tensions and reduce concerns about the national debt. And he also optioned Bessent as the next Federal Reserve Chair. 

Brace Yourself: Consumer Price Index Data Drops Tonight! The spotlight falls on the US inflation report tonight with a higher projection reading, and that suggests the potential of having higher costs stemming from the tariff problem. But here is what you should be aware of.  —> Higher inflation would only scale back on the rate cut projection in September and risk the stagflation problem as raised by the Bank of America. Especially with the tariff letter that has not been fully confirmed until August 01, 2025.  So if inflation prints hotter and tariffs are confirmed with a higher rate, the rate cut is very unlikely in this case unless Federal Reserve Chair Powell is kicked out or personally resigns.  Be aware of the stock market, as major bank earnings reports will be released tonight as well. A positive stock market won’t likely to favor on Gold price. All of these fall under the analyst’s inflation projection (higher than the prior figure) scenario.  If by chance, the actual data comes differently, then another scenario will play out.

The GOLD Price Movement: The Federal Reserve and Russia Sanctions The Federal Reserve (The FED)  The FED’s Hammack stands firm on the wait-and-see approach while not fully ruling out the interest rate cut, especially with the tariffs’ impact on hand. She stated that, “I don’t see a need to reduce unless we see material weakening on the labor side.”  Especially when the job data we got recently is showing on the stronger side, while the inflation is still above the restrictive level. However, if the next data release suggests otherwise, then the odds would add more to the rate cut projections. If not, then the odds still weigh heavily on the rate hold. The market is now priced in for holding the rate in July with a likelihood of 95.3%, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool.  US-Russia  President Donald Trump threatened 100% sanctions on Russia in 50 days while imposing secondary sanctions on those who purchase oil from them, particularly from India and China, as Russian oil buyers. This comes when Trump loses his patience over the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine war, while also providing the patriot missiles to Ukraine via NATO. According to Bloomberg’s opinion, Andreas Kluth, this could be seen as the move that the US is trying to pressure Moscow into ending the war.  Overall, the gold price now is lacking direction, as a mixed signal is being sent everywhere. One says to hold the interest rate for the sake of the inflation problem that could put the gold price down, and the other is seeking a higher tariff rate that could fuel more favor gold.  So, what now?  Focus on the inflation data and big bank earnings reports this week, as this will possibly spur some movement on the stock market and gold prices. As of now, many are optimistic about the data, which is why the gold price recently dropped—aka, the market priced in today’s data.

Weekly Data Summary Report As of​ July 14, 2025  Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on​ critical events related to President Donald Trump, and the trade war, within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight of the Week BRICS Trump also announced an additional 10% on countries aligning with the “anti-American policies” of the BRICS group, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others.   Trade Letter President Trump issued the trade letter with the tariff rate to the major trading partners, starting off with 25% tariffs on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, ranging to 50% tariffs on Brazil, as shown in the image below:  All of these are set to be effective on August 01, 2025.  And all the economies have an equal opportunity to renegotiate, reciprocate, or even concede; however, Trump’s letter warned that any countries choosing to reciprocate would face double the original rate Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is reportedly considering resignation due to intense pressure from President Donald Trump. And while William J. Pulte, chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has commented on these reports, Powell himself has not officially confirmed them.  → Should Powell resign, gold prices would likely rise. This is because Trump aims to significantly lower interest rates to address the national debt, and Powell’s opposition has been a key obstacle.  Overall, Trump focused heavily on imposing new tariffs, including 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, a 10% additional tariff on BRICS-aligned countries, and threats of 35% and 50% tariffs on Canada and Brazil, respectively this week. And all of these are causing some upward movement for the gold price. So as long as the trade dispute remains, the gold is likely to go up and vice versa.  The Market Reaction The gold price continues to trend higher after a rebound last week as the uncertainty arises around the trade agreement between US President Donald Trump and his major trading partners. At the same time, the stock market dropped last week by -0.31%, especially when the copper tariffs were being imposed at 50% under Trump’s trade policy.  Looking Forward Economic Indicators:  U.S. inflation data, including the consumer price index and producer price index, will be in the spotlight for this week, especially since Trump started​ the trade war once again.  Even some Federal Reserve members were split at the last FOMC meeting minutes, with a belief that the trade tension could only spark one-time inflation, while the inflation projection was softened; we cannot fully deny that inflation won’t be the problem for the US economy as well.  In fact, both inflation rates have risen since April, so if this data continues to show a continuous rise, then we are likely to see more odds supporting holding the rate longer or even possibly reducing the probability in September as well. And vice versa for softer printed CPI and PPI.  The rate cut projection stands on hold with the rate with odds of 93.3% as of Monday, 14 July 2025. Earning Calendar At the beginning of the week, we will have the bank earnings report from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, etc.  But do be cautious on Thursday; two major earnings reports will be released, including Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix.  Taiwan Semiconductor Despite a short-term profit-taking, looking into a bigger picture, the Taiwan Semiconductor surged by more than 50% in the past three months, a.k.a. —More than Nvidia, showing a rising demand for high-end chip manufacturing and an optimistic outlook from the investor.  → According to Dow Jones & Co. Barron, “The company might benefit from a tariff rule that says if at least 20% of an imported item’s value is ‘produced or transformed in the U.S.,’ the tariffs will be levied on the non-US content.” But for now, we are still unsure.  Netflix Netflix has also risen high since April, and now Morgan Stanley adjusted its Price Target on Netflix to $1,450 from $1,200, and even Keybanc and Wolfe Research also raised it to around $1,390 per share; all are suggesting a positive rating for the Netflix stock.

Gold Price Movement: Trump’s Tariff Development  Gold price continues to build up given President Trump’s pressure on the trade card, with a potential of having reciprocal tariffs back from his major trading partner.  Yesterday, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on copper that are set to take effect on August 01, 2025, while others responded: 50% tariff on Brazil, particularly concerning the flow of Brazilian coffee to the US, while Industrial products such as aircraft, cellulose, and machinery also made up 78.3% of exports Higher tariffs → higher export price and higher product price → raising up inflation → the road to achieving the 2% sustainable price would be very, very difficult.  Approximately 2 hours ago, 35% tariffs were placed on goods from Canada, while planning to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most other trading partners. Trump also stated that the degree of the new tariff rate will be set depending on the relationship between them. Yet, Canada has not responded.  So what are all of these telling you? Trade tensions still exist, regardless, and the market is still reacting to them. However, do consider the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, the delay rate cut projection, or the agreement on trade between countries. Higher tension in trade, lower interest rates, debt problems, or re-acceleration in war conflict → uncertainty exists → the gold price is likely to go up. And vice versa.