Trump-Australia Trade Agreement President Donald Trump strengthened the bilateral ties with the Australian Prime Minister, which focus on trade, submarines, and military equipment. This also includes the critical minerals and rare earths, vital for technology and defense, as well as AUKUS, which is viewed as a strategy to bring China to the table. Regardless, he is still moving forward, enhancing military cooperation with Australia and the UK. Trump-China Trade Strategy Despite Trump considering imposing 155% tariffs on China starting November 1 unless a trade deal is secured, he also expresses optimism about negotiating a fair agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping. → Expected to visit China in early 2026. U.S. Government Shutdown Concerns White House Senior Adviser Hassett predicts the ongoing government shutdown may be resolved this week, as failure to do so may require a stronger measure from the White House. The market is still await for the data release from the BLS this week, including the Consumer Price Index on Friday before rate decision. Ukraine-Russia Conflict Development The Russia sanction bill will be pended until Trump’s talks with Putin, proving that both parties are willing to re-negotiate over the conflict. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy also expressed his willingness to join a proposed summit despite caution. Trump doubts Ukraine’s ability to win the ongoing conflict but acknowledges its potential. → the conflict is still in uncertain. Middle East Ceasefire Efforts Regardless of how the ceasefire is being made, Israel continued to bombard on Sunday, which has forced Trump to send US envoys, including Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and more, to meet with Israeli PM Netanyahu to advance a Gaza ceasefire. → Next phase: disarming Hamas, withdrawal of troops, and establishment of an internationally backed governance model. AWS Outage and Cloud Service Risks A major Amazon Web Services outage disrupted global services like Snapchat, Netflix, Venmo, and various banks and airlines. Analysts warn of systemic risks due to this reliance, underscoring the need for diversified digital infrastructure to prevent widespread disruptions.
Weekly Market Outlook as of October 20, 2025
Content: Find the link below for each section. Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Key factors that shall be looked forward to the most in this week will be included in this report, which the investor may use as the backup foundation before making any trading decisions. This report will also include both fundamental analysis—key drivers behind every move—and technical analysis—the price actions and liquidity zone you should be aware of. Kindly note that this is provided for the intention of raising awareness and educational purposes only; do not take it as investment advice or a signal for your trading. Fundamental Analysis Four factors to focus on this week from the fundamental side: US Indicators Inflation data is the most crucial data of this week, especially ahead of the central bank’s interest rate decision, with an upward projection for an annual CPI and an unchanged monthly CPI. This could be the first release from the BLS after the US government shutdown. US Shutdown: This is the fourth week after the US shut down some of its operations and delayed several data for weeks. This also means that many won’t get the paycheck, and some will lose their job, weakening the labor market further while supporting the rate cut. Along with the rate cut on October 30, 2025, these two Factors are used to consider a rise in gold this week or next. US-China trade The US and China trade talks will proceed further in Malaysia this week between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng after their “frank and detailed” talk last week. Although Trump reiterated a positive talk with a Chinese official, if the talk continues to go well, then we are likely to see more setbacks in the gold price. And if not, more escalation, then the probability of more gold rising will be higher. Geopolitical Tension Focus on the current Israel and Hamas situation, which was once said to be a ceasefire, and yet the report still shows more deaths in Gaza. Furthermore, don’t focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Trump currently refuses to send the Tomahawk missiles at Ukraine’s request. For now, there is no clear direction from the fundamental side, except for looking forward to how the event will unfold. But I have given some scenarios to consider in advance. Do note that this is just a scenario from one aspect; do consider other aspects that happen during the time, as these will weigh against each other. Technical Analysis
Market Recap: Key Highlight Last Week
Weekly Data Summary Report As of October 20, 2025 Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on critical events related to President Donald Trump, economic conditions, and war conflicts within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event: US Economy: Nothing much on the economic indicators side due to the continued US shutdown again, except for the Federal Reserve’s repetitive speeches last week that still weigh the inflation and labor problem ahead of the rate cut at the end of this month. The projections still stand on two rate cuts this year—October and December, with a 25 bps cut each time. ***Focus on the inflation data this week, which will be the first to be released from the Labor Department despite the shutdown.*** US regional Banks The market started to shake after hearing some reports that US regional banks are involved with fraudulent activities, raising doubts about the banking system amid the US shutdown. Gold prices hiked after the news. Trade Tension US-China: After the intense tariffs threatened between the US and China, some easing of tension is seen throughout the weekend, with Trump emphasizing that “It’s probably not [sustainable]—you know, it could stand, but they forced me to do that.” The market has taken this as a pressure tactic and a temporary weapon that Trump used for trade negotiations. He also added that he could move the November 1st deadline up if he wanted to. This has eased the tension, causing the Gold prices to dip significantly, especially when the stock market opens. Some timelines for your convenience → The US has kept extremely tight restrictions on exports of highly advanced chips, which impact Huawei the most. China responded by restricting exports of rare-earth minerals—a.k.a. critical materials needed to power a wide range of electronics. It is just a recent event; it started earlier than that. Other than that, US President Donald Trump also provided a tariff relief on the automaker’s US production, albeit the heavy-duty vehicles, parts, and buses will still be in effect on November 1st. A factor in gold down. Geopolitical Tension Russia-Ukraine: After a fruitful talk between U.S. President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Trump reportedly refused to send Tomahawk missile systems—the long-range missile that Ukraine has requested—on Friday, while also urging Ukraine to cede the territory. This could be seen as a mixed signal, but if tensions or war accelerated, then gold could fly. Israel-Hamas: Although Trump reiterated that, ceasefire is still in effect, the Gaza Government Media Office reported that Israel continued to bombard Gaza, killing at least 90 Palestinians in Gaza after the truce was made. Nothing is cleared yet. So do focus on this as well.
Factors in Moving the Gold Prices Last Night
Aside from the concerns over the trade tension between the US and China, geopolitical tensions, or even the prolonged US shutdown, the gold prices last night were also affected by other new factors, such as: US Regional Bank Growing concerns over the US credit market came when the US regional banks were rumored to be involved in fraudulent activities, from the lender to the borrower. And that is like fueling more oil into the fire that is already worsened by the US shutdown. Panic mode crept into the market and sent the gold price higher last midnight. The Bank stocks tumbled after the news release. Other Update: Russia-Ukraine Development Trump announced he will meet Russian President Putin in Budapest within two weeks, after a “productive” phone call. Trump plans to brief Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on these talks during their Friday Washington meeting, where Zelenskyy is expected to appeal for Tomahawk missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory. And yet, Putin continues to pressure Trump on this matter, as this will bring more challenges to their relationship. In fact, Putin told Trump that Tomahawk missiles would not change the battlefield situation but would harm US-Russia ties and the peace process. Meanwhile, some also reported that North Korea is secretly assisting Russian missile strikes while guiding them from Kursk into Ukraine’s Sumy region. Amid this talk, Russia continues its bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure, leading to several blackouts in the city. The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve member Waller sees further softening in the labor market conditions as a “clear warning,” saying that the FED should be ready to cut the interest rate toward a more neutral level (between 100-125 bps below the current rate) if the job weakness persists. All of these still come after he acknowledges a conflict between strong economic growth and the absence of the labor market boom, while seeing some loosening in the financial conditions. Other than that, most of the FED still speak over and over again about the soft labor amid persistent inflation. At the same time, some, including the FED’s Kashkari, also brought out the challenge in interpreting signals without complete government data. All in all, the market is still priced in higher for easing.
Morning Brief: The Federal Reserve, the US-China Trade, and India over Russian oil
The Federal Reserve Federal Reserve officials, including Collins, Miran, and Waller, are signaling a growing concern over the labor market, with multiple comments indicating that “downside risks have risen” and the job market has “clearly weakened”, albeit they also acknowledge the sticky inflation from tariffs. Reflecting this pessimistic outlook, they remain lean toward further monetary policy, with both FED collins and Miran suggesting that having “one or two more interest rate cuts this year would be appropriate.” These concerns are compounded by weak consumer sentiment and Waller’s expectation of more layoffs due to AI. Combined with the FED chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday, warning on the weakening in labor market conditions, the market now is still priced in for two rate cuts with chances of more than 90% each time. The US-China Trade Despite President Donald Trump’s talk of having a trade war with China, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also proposed a clear path to de-escalation, saying that the US could extend the pause on import duties past the November deadline (longer than three months), only if China suspends the new export controls on rare-earth elements. This could be seen as a strategic move to stack up bargaining chips before the expected leader’s meeting, with Besent warning that the US and its allies are prepared to deliver a coordinated group response to China’s global supply chain management. India over Russian oil President Donald Trump claims that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop purchasing Russian oil—a “big step” that follows US pressure and tariffs aimed at cutting off Moscow’s energy revenues amid the Ukraine conflict. He also said he would pressure China to make a similar commitment, as both India and China are currently the top buyers of Russian oil. The US President also acknowledged that India’s halt would be a gradual “process,” though the Indian Embassy in Washington has not yet confirmed Modi’s alleged commitment.
Gold Price Update Today!
The gold price extended gains to +100USD per ounce in one day, given the recent high uncertainty and market stress from several factors: More tension → gold prices still likely to continue. But do watch out for the ceasefire. For now, Trump vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict again. → A bit of spice from the ceasefire yesterday President Donald Trump has pledged enduring peace in the Middle East following the signing of a Gaza ceasefire agreement with the leaders of Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye. Major institutions are raising gold price forecasts due to fiscal uncertainty, dovish monetary policies, and other risks. In fact, the Bank of America predicts $5,000/oz by 2026, and J.P. Morgan targets $4,500 within a year. Meanwhile, central banks, led by China, Turkey, and Poland, have increased gold purchases, exceeding 400 tons this year, according to the World Gold Council.
Weekly Gold Movement: Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Content: Find the link below for each section. Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Key factors that shall be looked forward to the most in this week will be included in this report, which the investor may use as the backup foundation before making any trading decisions. This report will also include both fundamental analysis—key drivers behind every move—and technical analysis—the price actions and liquidity zone you should be aware of. Kindly note that this is provided with the intention of raising awareness and educational purposes only; do not take it as investment advice or a signal for your trading. Fundamental Analysis Economic Indicators & US Shutdown: Two main indicators you should track are inflation data (consumer price index and producer price index) and the labor data or the employment reports (nonfarm payroll, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings). Both will release only if the US government reopens—a.k.a. the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Let’s say both will release on the projected date. ***Remember, all will project on how the FED will view the economy and how this will influence the interest rate decision on October 30, 2025.*** In a scenario where the US shutdown continues (more than three weeks) → the layoff problem will resurface, as the budget will be deflated → panic mode will set in, and the gold prices will likely go up. Trade War Pay extra attention to the trade war between the US and China as the tension resurged once again last week, with Trump continuing to put pressure on, having additional 100% tariffs on the rare mineral that could heavily affect the stock market. In response, the stock market crashed. And the very next thing we know is that if this continues, combined with the US shutdown, this won’t do any good for the US economy. Everything will collapse—factor in the gold price rise! But if not, let’s say the meeting will go well, everything will settle, and the gold price will pull back. Conclusion From a Fundamental side, The US Shutdown + Trade War + Geopolitical tension (Russia-Ukraine) + interest rate cut this month will likely push the gold price higher. Unless everything goes back to its normal phase—ceasefire, trade agreement, reopening of the US government, and all the data shows positive and strong conditions—the gold price will pull back. Technical Analysis
Macro Dose: Factor In Gold Price Fluctuation Last Week
Weekly Data Summary Report As of October 13, 2025 Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on critical events related to President Donald Trump, economic conditions, and war conflicts within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event: The US government Shutdown continues for more than 11 days, and the longer it lasts, the worse it could become, particularly in terms of layoffs. However, the Senate and the U.S. House can’t seem to agree, with one demanding a rise and the other supporting a reduction. With that being said, employment reports, which were once delayed, continue to be tentative, given the uncertainty in government reopenings. Therefore, if the US shutdown continues this week, this could delay both inflation data and labor data, making it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to reach a reasonable interest rate decision—a.k.a., lack of data. The market this week still expects to see two rate cuts this year, one in October and another in December. Trade War: Before the market closed, US President Donald Trump threatened additional 100% tariffs on China, while China vowed to take countermeasures if the US persists in raising tariffs. This has accelerated the tension that was once eased back to its place, while Trump reiterated that the US still has more cards to play. This is particularly targeting the high-tech company—one that uses the rare mineral in production—putting the risk to all the stock market, although the deal negotiation starts on November 01st, 2025. The recent news also reported that both are willing to dive deeper into the dialogue, with a softer tone was seen. Geopolitical Tension Ceasefire: Israel and Hamas have come to an agreement in the first phase, focusing on the release of hostages and prisoners, while other terms are likely to take place this week. So the next problem they are facing right now is the medicine and other essential supplies shortage. Russia-Ukraine: Regardless, tension is not fully eased unless Russia and Ukraine reach a deal. Neither party seems to have any intention to end yet, while the fight still goes on, especially on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Last few days, the Ukrainian president requested the Tomahawks—US long-range missiles—while vowing to use them only against the Russian military. So now, geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and US uncertainty are all coming back and paving the path for gold to rise, especially when the FED interest rate cut is around the corner. But if things change halfway—e.g., the US agrees to China’s tariff—then the gold direction also changes.
Market Talk: The Federal Reserve, the US Shutdown, and Ceasefire Talk
The Federal Reserve Although the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the FED bowman’s speeches regarding the banking system, they did not provide any monetary policy or the economic outlook last night. As for the other two FED members, both sent mixed signals for the interest rate decision, with one supporting easing and another one supporting cautiousness. The FED’s Barr is still concerned about the inflation prices while still looking out for the weak labor market conditions. Currently, the US shutdown is still ongoing in its second week, and neither party has shown any resolution on this matter yet. So as long as this continues, this will make the FED rate decision this month more challenging, especially with the nonfarm payroll data and consumer price index data still hanging around. Ceasefire Talk Despite having the ceasefire agreement approved by the Cabinet, the US has also sent 200 US troops there to monitor the progress and ensure both parties will be obligated to this agreement. For now, everyone is focused on the ceasefire, but the real question is, how long will this continue? Therefore, the gold price dropped by roughly 2% last night due to these reasons, particularly following the recent ceasefire.
Morning Brief: What to catch up on?
The recent gold price slipped, possibly due to several factors: The first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been achieved, with the diplomatic efforts of Qatar, the US, Egypt, and Turkey as the key mediators to assist in this breakthrough. This phase will focus on hostage and prisoner exchanges, possibly on Saturday, and that will also ease some tension in geopolitics. As a result, the gold price dropped earlier this morning. However, consider one thing: despite this first-phase breakthrough, it does not mean that the war will finally end; this event only represents the first phase of a multi-stage peace plan. → So if the ceasefire breaks once again midway, then this also means that the potential of gold rising will also be high. Despite having a rate cut in September 18-19, 2025, the Federal Reserve Meeting minutes reported that several FED members are still cautious and skeptical over the inflation problem, albeit they are seeing softer labor market conditions in the near term. A rising inflation problem has kept the FED members in check for further easing decisions, which could also be another barrier to the gold price upward. This is also another factor contributing to the downward gold. Regardless, the market is still priced in for two more rate cuts this year, each a 25 bps cut in October and December. Another factor that could put downward pressure on the gold price is the market taking a profit after reaching a record high. In conclusion, these three reasons, such as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, the Inflation problem, and profit taking, are keeping the gold price down. However, do not forget about the US shutdown, which has put the US economy in a bad spot. As long as the US shutdown continues, the chance of having an upward gold price still exists, and the employment report could potentially be delayed again. However, if not—meaning the US agreed to reopen—then the gold price will continue to go downward.
