Weekly Data Summary Report As of​ September 29, 2025  Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on​ critical events related to President Donald Trump, the trade war, and war conflicts within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event:  US Economy: Last week’s focus was on the GDP, pricing, and how the Federal Reserve views the current interest rate pace. The US economy growth grew stronger and more resilient than we thought, while the pricing is unexpectedly softening, which led the FED to continue its easing monetary policy in the next meeting, possibly. In fact, the market is still pricing in two more rate cuts before the year’s end. As for the FED, they remain skeptical of the dual mandate—labor market conditions and inflation problem. One will raise doubts about the inflation progress, and another will be concerned about the labor market conditions. However, one thing set clear, the FED’s powell also mentioned that, “Towards the next meeting will look at the labor market, growth data, inflation data to ask if the policy is in the right place. If policy is not in the right place, we’ll move it there.” which reflects either holding the rate if data become stronger and continuing to ease if become softer. Therefore, the US NFP becomes the next looking forward indicator this week. Trade Progress: Trump sets tariffs starting Oct 1: 100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on cabinets/vanities, 30% on furniture, 25% on trucks, which hints at trade war concerns. Russia-Ukraine Development:  Zelenskyy posted on X that Russia’s Sunday bombardment struck Zaporizhia, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, and Odesa regions, killing 4 and wounding at least 40 Ukrainians. He warned of Russia’s probable push toward the EU, citing recent strikes on Poland and elsewhere, while noting Trump’s approval for shooting down invaders if the assault persists. In fact, Trump also pressures Russia through economic trade with tariffs while urging Turkey to stop Russian oil buys for sanctions relief and aircraft deals. Israel-Gaza  President Donald Trump announced that his Gaza peace plan has received positive responses from Israel and Arab leaders, including those from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan, who expressed eagerness to finalize the deal during his upcoming meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. This proposal included Middle East peace, hostage release, permanent ceasefire, and more.  → if succeed → less geopolitical tension → gold price is likely to pull back in the short term.  Government Shutdown Risk: Possible Oct 1 shutdown if Congress fails to pass funding bills, risking layoffs and worsening the labor market conditions. Other Actions: Approves $14B TikTok sale to U.S. investors.

Trade Progress President Donald Trump just unleashed a bold move on Truth Social, announcing new tariffs, and here is what you should know:  1. Announces 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals 2. Announces 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets 3. Announces 50% tariff on bathroom vanities and associated products 4. Announces 30% tariff on upholstered furniture 5. Announces 25% tariff on heavy trucks 6. Continues to press the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 2%. ***These taxes will take effect on October 1st. All of these are raising doubts about the return of the trade war, and yet the market has not fully digested it. This could be a sign that the market is still waiting for further confirmation or that it has already become accustomed to it.   Government Shutdown However, there are things to take into consideration, such as a possible government shutdown on October 1st that could worsen the already weakened labor market conditions. This only occurs when an agreement won’t be reached, meaning if Congress has not passed the 12 required appropriations bills to fund discretionary spending before the deadline, then a government shutdown will kick off, and lay off plan will also follow. US economy Another interesting fact is that the US economic health seems to unexpectedly perform relatively too well, while pricing has dropped to 2.1% for the second quarter, indicating resilient consumer spending and growing economic activities. This could fade out the concerns over the labor problem a little bit, especially when the jobless have slightly dropped to 218K this week. And yet, this also shifted focus on the inflation back if the economy continues to be robust.  This positive, strong data, along with recent uncertain direction from the FED’s rate cut, has eased the odds of a rate cut this year, while pushing the gold down after the announcement.  Overall, the current situation is showing a mixed picture: one shows the resurgence in the inflation problem from resilient economic growth, while another is raising the stakes for the layoffs problem and trade war that could impact the economy.  Other information: 

The Federal Reserve Development.  Ahead of the PCE price Index, which is also the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, released this week, several Fed members are shifting their concerns about the inflation problem, fading out on further easing after the last rate cut decision.  Although most of them also see upside risk to both mandate—labor market conditions and inflation, they also affirm that there is no stagflation nor recession at the current speed. However, they project to see some softening in the labor market, which could put some reluctance on businesses’ hiring activities. Even JPMorgan Jamie Dimon also believes that the FED will face a difficult rate cut decision if inflation does not disappear.  → Signs in seeing a road block for easing, the FED playing a cautious approach here, albeit still open for a rate cut → could diminish the rate cut probability ahead of the October and December rate cut → a factor in downgrading gold’s appreciation.  Russia-Ukraine While Russia has aimlessly violated the airspace of NATO member countries and destroyed several buildings in Ukraine for years, US President Donald Trump is now open to NATO strike back if this continues (allowing others to shoot down the Russian aircraft) while promising to supply weapons to NATO. He also cited that, “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”  And yet, another source also reported that Iran and Russia have now signed on nuclear power plant, ahead of the potential sanctions imposed by the US and Europe.  → All of these are evolving into a greater geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, and NATO members.  As for Israel-Gaza, Trump also called to end the Gaza war immediately in the UN General Assembly speech, calling out the UN as “ineffective; and describing migration and renewable energy as the biggest threats facing the “free world”. China’s GOLD move According to a Bloomberg source, “China aims to become custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves,” meaning that China wants to hold and manage gold reserves for other countries to boost its influence in the global gold market. As per Wael Makarem, financial markets strategist, lead at Exness. “Investors could be interpreting this as incremental de-dollarization momentum, which could support gold.” → a support for GOLD in favor early this week.

The Federal Reserve Rate Decision In short, the Federal Reserve will focus on the labor market, while the reporter is still concerned about inflation. The overall market is still priced in for the October and December rate cuts.   Opinion:  The surprising part is that a newly joined Stephen Miran is the only one voting for the 50 bps rate cut, while the other two—Bowman and Waller, who are expected to follow the same—did not. This shows a win situation for Powell. The Bank of Canada  The Bank of Canada (BoC) also cut the rate by 25 bps to 2.5% given the fragile economy and low inflation rate, while hinting at having another cut in October. Although easing would stimulate growth, over-easing too quickly could possibly pose an inflation risk again. 

The Bank of Canada Starting off with the Bank of Canada, which many expect to see a 25 bps rate cut tonight, from 2.75% to 2.50%, and that could be the result of reaching the desired inflation level while seeing some sluggishness in the labor market conditions.  As per the purchasing managers’ index report, they cited seeing some marginal increase in the input price due to higher supplier charges from tariff uncertainty, along with the rising employment costs. Yet the overall inflation continues to slip below 2% while the unemployment rate has still risen noticeably.  The Federal Reserve The same fate falls on the Federal Reserve with a 25 bps rate cut projection, while some still expect for a 50 bps cut. But the real question is, who will vote for which? The dot plot, the future guidance, and how the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will lean more?  Key note here is that Stephen Miran will also join this FED decision, which is most likely to stand by Trump’s desired rate of 50 bps, while Bowman and Waller will also likely follow the same.  So if 25 bps come as expected, and the FED powell sticks to the same communication as in Jackson Hole—weak labor market concern—then this will signal a dovish sign and will likely support the gold price.  However, if he believes that the labor market is still solid, given how the recent jobless claims were fraudulent in Texas, while inflation concerns are still on their minds, and that could lead to a more cautious approach, the gold pullback scenario will come into play.  In the other case, where 50 bps come unexpectedly, then this will surprise the market, and gold prices will most likely rise as easing weakens the USD.  For now, the gold price decline could potentially result from profit-taking while some await tonight’s market reaction.

US Retail Sales Last night, US retail sales came a lot hotter in August, proving that consumer spending remains resilient even if the tariff problem continues to boost the cost of consumption and the labor market shows signs of softening. However, that does not diminish the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision this week at all, as the odds exceed 90% to see a 25-bps rate cut, with some expecting a 50-bps cut.  And with an upcoming easing of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, this is likely to continue to encourage more spending and improve the labor market conditions, although this may also accelerate the cost of living at the same time. With that in mind, as per CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Bessent cited that Trump is open to a rate hike if inflation becomes a problem in the latter phase. TikTok Deadline Meanwhile, the TikTok deadline has finally been extended until December 16 as expected, with many big companies desiring to acquire this. The TikTok deal was sealed with similar terms of negotiation earlier in the year, which several companies, including Oracle Corp., Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz, will control over TikTok’s US operations. The next meeting will be on Friday between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.  Geopolitical Development Israel launched a major offensive to occupy Gaza City, following weeks of airstrikes and operations on the city’s outskirts. This has forced several to flee under the bombing and bullets, making this war fall into even greater tension. Defense Minister Israel Katz declared on X, “Gaza is burning.”, They also admitted that this would take “several months” to control Gaza City. On the same day, a UN-commissioned inquiry concluded that Israel is responsible for committing genocide in Gaza. In a separate development, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that U.S. President Donald Trump invited him to the White House in two weeks.

The gold prices hit their highest records to $3689 per ounce ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision set on Thursday, and recent geopolitical tensions.  The FED is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 bps or 0.25%, the first time since December 2024, due to recent concerns over the labor market conditions. However, President Donald Trump also posted on his social media, citing that he wants a bigger cut, referring to 50bps or more, with a reason of housing market issues and rising national debts.  Geopolitical Tension: Israel still violates Gaza, killing several people and destroying several buildings, while Russia and Ukraine are getting nowhere better. This rising war tension is still a factor in contributing to rising gold prices, as the market sentiment still worries about this issue.  Another factor that people are looking forward to: According to President Donald Trump, the trade deal meeting between the European Union, China, and the US seems to have ended well.  The European Union is reportedly considering imposing sanctions on companies in India and China that are helping Russia with its oil trade. This move would be part of a new round of restrictions. While Trump also mentioned that he will impose major sanctions if the EU does the same.  In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a framework deal to keep the TikTok app running in the US has been reached, albeit the terms of the blueprint remain unclear. The next meeting between the US and China will be on Friday.  All await India and the United States trade talks on Tuesday, sparking hope for a resolution after recent tensions. The talks come weeks after President Trump imposed tariffs on India for its purchase of Russian oil.  Secure in the talk deal → gold correction will be likely. And vice versa.  Meanwhile, regarding the FED’s Lisa Cook, who President Donald Trump has been trying to dismiss from the FED rate decision, is now being rejected from an appeals court in the US. 

Weekly Data Summary Report As of​ September 15, 2025  Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on​ critical events related to President Donald Trump, the trade war, and war conflicts within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event: Economic Aspect: Although input prices dropped, the output prices sold to the consumer are rising above the restrictive level of 2%, which still suggests having higher price pressure. However, with the initial jobless claims climbing to their highest since more than 3 years ago, the market is still pricing in high expectations for the 3 rate cuts this year. This reflects on labor market concerns that may potentially push the economy into a recession zone in the future. Other concerns are the housing market with a drag mortgage rate, along with the national debt from Trump’s concerns. Therefore, this week, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on September 18, 2025, at 1:00 AM Cambodia time with a 25 bps rate cut expectation, albeit Trump predicted a “big cut.”  Israel-Qatar fight:​ Not only did Israel strike Qatar in the early week, but they continued to violate other countries, such as Gaza, which has killed at least 53 people and destroyed several buildings, including “schools, mosques, hospitals, and medical centers.” It’s also launched “the attack on Syria,​ on Yemen, and the continuation of attacks on Lebanon—seven countries so far. This aims to achieve ‘the kingdom of Israel,’ the great Israel, as per Adnan Hayajneh, professor of international relations at Qatar University. President Donald Trump is very unpleasant on this, while many other countries support Qatar if some measure is taken. In fact, Qatar is hosting a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders on Sunday and Monday to plot a course of action after Israel’s “cowardly” attack on Doha on Tuesday. Russia-Ukraine: After Russia invaded Poland’s airspace, Poland downed the Russian drone while closing down the border with Belarus and Russia. Russia threatened to reopen or face the consequences. France, Germany, and Denmark will contribute fighter jets and other military assets to an enhanced defense of Poland. All in all, the tension still exists between these countries, and President Donald Trump stated that “he was willing to impose sanctions on Russia if NATO halts purchasing Russian oil.” US-China Talk: U.S. and Chinese officials held trade talks in Madrid on Sunday, discussing tense relations, TikTok, and China’s Russian oil purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “We’ll continue tomorrow.” Other countries are having internal conflict—protests, including the United Kingdom over anti-immigration, Nepal’s Gen Z-led anti-corruption protests, France over the government overspending, Indonesia over increased allowances, and more.  So what are all of these telling us?  Increasing immigration to other countries will ultimately lead to higher unemployment, a slow economy due to disruption everywhere, and major economic chaos, and wanting to become the king of the region, all of which will lead to panic and support the gold price. But at one point, the gold might retrace due to extreme fear.  The gold price surged by almost 1% for a weekly measure.

US inflation Despite having a hotter inflation headline, the Federal Reserve still priced in four straight rate cuts until January 2026 by 25 bps each time right after the data release. This could be a result of a weakening in the labor market conditions, as proven by the undeniable increase in the jobless claims data last night. Initial jobless claims rose to the highest since more than 3 years ago, indicating higher layoff activities in the United States and raising doubts on the cracking form in the labor market.  This also means that the market last night priced in the rate cut due to the weak labor market rather than the inflation. In a normal case, stronger inflation would scale back on the rate cuts, but due to weak labor, the rate cut is higher. In other terms, they plan to let the cracking labor market diminish the demand, consumption, and inflation data instead.  Below is the probability that the market priced in after the data release.  The Federal Reserve Trump also requested the Federal appeals court to remove the Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from her position ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision by September 18, 2025. However, as per Cook’s lawyer, this act will likely deliver a major blow to the market conditions in return, especially when things are not certain lately.  The European Central Bank (ECB) The ECB maintained the interest rate at 2.15% as they gained more confidence in the economic growth while the inflation rate is now reaching the desirable level amid the uncertainty reduction. For now, the trade bets on ending the rate cut cycles by lowering the probability of an interest rate cut in 2026 from 60% to 50%. Therefore, this led to the EURUSD strengthening after the ECB President Lagarde’s speeches were released.  Tariffs  Everyone is aiming for China’s auto manufacturer tariff with Mexico to increase the tariffs up to 50% on cars and other products, while the US also pressures G-7 countries to impose higher tariffs on India and China as well. In accordance with Bloomberg’s opinions, “China’s auto manufacturers’ inherently lower production costs” also mean that even with tariffs, their cars are still competitive with others. Aka—not much affected in China. However, according to US Commerce Secretary Lutnich, “The Europeans will block Chinese cars; they’ll learn. Chinese cars are not competitive; they’re government-backed.”  For now, we are unsure, but the data from the economy minister said that “some Asian exporters will only affect 8.6% of Mexican foreign trade.”  Israel-Qatar The United States, the closest ally to Israel, along with other members, is calling for the de-escalation of the latest conflict between Israel and Qatar. Israel has been repeatedly assaulting/invading other countries, including Qatar, Yemen, Gaza, and more, which has led the United Nations Security Council to condemn its aggressive acts. Even the United States, which previously defended Israel, now also begins to show a strong rebuke against this act as well—aka, the US distances itself when it comes to the attack on Qatar.  Regardless, Qatar commits to solving this conflict diplomatically in the effort to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.