Factor 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI  The US ISM purchasing managers’ Index continued to stay below the benchmark of 50, suggesting contracting activities coming from the manufacturing sector. Looking into the employment level also slipped, showing further weakness in labor market conditions despite the slower increase in pricing level.  Therefore, the market re-priced on a higher rate cut projection, which has surged to over 90%, higher than the previous forecast yesterday.  All of these are signaling a less optimistic outlook for the US economy, which is weakening the USD and supporting gold prices.  Factor 2: Tariff Uncertainty  President Donald Trump plans to appeal to the Supreme Court to quickly reverse a federal appeals court ruling that declared many of his tariffs illegal. Trump insists these tariffs are vital for his trade policy and warns that overturning them could devastate the U.S. economy. The tariffs remain in place until mid-October, pending the appeal. However, Trump also reported that this relief appeal will come as soon as Wednesday.  → If the US court believes that Trump should refund the previously collected tariff → major blow US treasury and market.  → Uncertainty in Tariffs leads to appreciation of safe-haven assets such as GOLD.  Factor 3: Geopolitical Tension Russia-Ukraine development: Russian drones continued to attack in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, which is further accelerating uncertainty in the market.  US-Venezuela: President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had conducted a “kinetic strike” against a drug-carrying boat in international waters. This marked the start of another war, which the US has fought against Venezuela, claiming that the illegal drug has been pushed into the US and other nations. Furthermore, there are expected to be more US warships, along with one nuclear-powered fast attack submarine, to be there soon. Although Venezuela has not responded yet, Mr. Maduro also threatened an “armed fight” in response to any military action. Potential market reaction —>this is another tension on war conflict, which could potentially push the gold price higher.  All of these factors, such as dovish FED expectations on rate cut, uncertainty in tariffs legal act, and higher geopolitical tensions are contributed to rising gold prices yesterday and will potentially lead to more increases if tensions still exist. But do remember, if tension is too much, gold slip is also likely, just like what we experienced last time—aka over fear pulls the investor out of the market.

Factor in gold price movement: → More odds on rate cut → push gold prices higher. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent also stated that “There’s a good chance US CEA’s Miran is seated before the September Fed meeting,” according to a Semafor interview. This remark is also marked as a factor in shaking the Federal Reserve’s independence and leading to higher gold prices as well, especially when the FED governor Lisa Cook’s position is still under threat.  Reaction: Not much reaction to the Gold prices. → So as long as geopolitical tensions still exist, the gold price is likely to rise, especially when an easing monetary policy (rate cut) environment has already come into play this month. However, do note that a gold price correction is also likely in the short term due to changes in geopolitics and the FED’s stance. 

Fundamental Analysis Monday (Labor Day: Holiday) Tuesday Aside from the ISM purchasing managers index from the United States, another crucial event that will influence the gold price is the dismissal of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, which concerns the US central bank’s independence.  Although the Judge gave some time for them to seek additional claims, losing the FED’s cook from her position will likely open the path for Trump to initiate the easing even faster and could potentially lead to higher gold as well. Especially when Stephen Miran’s hearing as the nominee to the Federal Reserve Board (easing partner) will be on September 04.  Wednesday and Thursday  It also focuses on the other job data, such as JOLTS Job Openings and ADP employment changes, alongside the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.  Friday  The main character of the week is the US employment report, including the nonfarm payroll, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, which will become the last job data before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision is released. All will determine the labor market conditions and whether this will align with what Federal Reserve Chair Powell expects in Jackhole—anticipating an increase in downside job risk. The interest rate decision is on September 18, 2025, with 87.6% betting on the rate cut, while the remaining 12.4% are on hold. So, having weakening labor market conditions will support easing, and that could push the gold prices higher. And vice versa for stronger data.  ***Remember, war conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, and the potential of Iran and US, will also factor into gold changes.  Technical Analysis

Weekly Data Summary Report As of​ September 01, 2025  Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on​ critical events related to President Donald Trump, the trade war, and war conflicts within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event: Tariff development: The US appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump illegally imposed tariffs through emergency law, although the final decision has yet to come. The ruling will take effect on 14 October.  Despite all of these, Trump struck back on his Truth Social, saying that “All tariffs will still be in effect” while stressing the potential for a major financial blow if the tariffs are eliminated. According to the Guardian source, “if Trump’s tariffs are struck down, it might have to refund some of the import taxes that it has collected.” This will bring even more challenges to financial stability and economic outlook.  All of these come after Trump threatened to impose tariffs on other countries, such as 200% tariffs on China if magnets are not provided and 50% tariffs on India over purchasing Russian oil, while warning all nations about the digital tax.  The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s case will be suspended until at least Tuesday, as the judge gave both sides (Cook and Trump) a chance to find additional arguments. In fact, Trump accused Cook of illegally committing mortgage fraud, while Cook filed a lawsuit for a temporary restraining order to block it.  Geopolitical Tension: Russia-Ukraine: Russian forces launched 286 drone attacks, 10 missile attacks, and five air strikes on 16 settlements in one day, damaging several households and energy buildings, resulting in a blackout in Ukraine’s region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he will return with a deep strike in Russia for his country’s power facilities, although some reported a complete restoration in Russia’s Kursk nuclear power plant’s third reactor after the last attack. Meanwhile, North Korea will stand by Russia’s side by sending missiles, as well as soldiers and artillery ammunition.  These tensions are going nowhere; a ceasefire is still out of an option now despite recent pressures from US President Donald Trump. He previously mentioned having potentially strong tariffs or sanctions to end this war.  E3-Iran: The UK, Germany, and France threatened to reimpose sanctions on Iran after it “failed to comply with demands to negotiate with the US and allow nuclear inspectors to resume their work.” While Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized this as “unjustified, illegal, and without any legal basis.” The Tension isn’t that much; however, this could be another signal for re-acceleration in geopolitical tension.  Israel-Gaza:​ There is an increasing intensity in Israeli attacks on the city of Gaza, with several residential buildings and forces being attacked by “Israeli explosive robots.” This has led more people to die, while some refused to evacuate from there.

The gold prices jumped higher to 3423.18 per ounce before the retracement early this morning due to many geopolitical tensions rising overnight and shaking the Federal Reserve’s independence.  Russia-Ukraine Issue: According to Kyiv’s data, last night’s battle can be considered as the second-largest barrage of the entire war, with at least 21 people killed, and this also escalated to a boom on Europe and the UK’s buildings. This caused not only some tension between Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the UK will respond.  Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s oil, while damage was also done to Ukraine’s many regions. This also pushes the gold prices and oil prices higher in response.  Reimpose sanctions on Iran: The three European countries (E3), such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, commit to reimposing sanctions on Iran over the nuclear program once again, which also opens some path for more tension in the market.  Although the diplomatic negotiation still exists in the current context—30-day window will be open before implementation—the current signals are leaning toward a more pessimistic outlook on this war. In fact, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected the E3’s decision as “unjustified, illegal, and lacking any legal basis”, according to an ALJAZEERA source.  Weak Economic Data: Despite having a stronger GDP in the second quarter, which also pushed the gold prices in the first reaction, we are also seeing some slackening in the labor market conditions, while the pricing tends to become less persistent. All of these could potentially support the next FED rate cut in September.  The Federal Reserve’s Lisa Cook: The FED’s Cook requests a temporary order on her case while challenging Trump’s accusation back in an attempt to save her position. However, Trump also stated that he found “there was cause to remove FED’s Cook—aka evidence.”  —> threatening the FED’s independence.  —> hearing on Friday at 10 AM ET (around 9 PM Cambodia Time) Other Fed members addressed labor risk and supported having a 25 bps rate cut in September, albeit a 50 bps cut is currently off the table.  To conclude, all of these are causing the market to become more sensitive and result in a higher gold price last night.

Economic Indicator: Three indicators to look at: Gross Domestic Product, PCE price index, and jobless claims tonight at 7:30 PM Cambodia time. All of these will determine economic outlook and pricing on the goods, particularly when assessing the tariffs’ impact, while also looking at the labor market conditions ahead of the US employment report. In fact, the Federal Reserve’s William also stressed the potential of slow growth, while the hiring activities also show somewhat scaled back. So if the Jobless claims data continue to drop, then this also signals a weaker job health.  Therefore, this also influences the rate decision on the upcoming September 18, 2025, on how much they are willing to cut the interest rate or how they will see the current economic outlook. Will this decision be the last rate cut of the year, or will there be another one before the year’s end? The current stance is now at 87.2% chance of a rate cut.  Stock Market NVIDIA Earnings Report:  Despite the NVIDIA earnings report beating the expectation, there is an increasingly pessimistic outlook for the future, which is mainly driven by the policy restrictions from China. In fact, “Nvidia confirmed zero sales (not factoring in smugglers) of its H20 GPUs in China during the July quarter,” as per the source, albeit there are no signs of slipping AI demand. → So the market now expects Nvidia to increase production fast enough to meet the tech consumption, or not. 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Involvement of Europe  Despite having a previous agreement on granting the security guarantee, last night, Russian President Putin rejected the idea of having Europe’s aid, stating that this guarantee should only involve one party.  After the rejection, the EU is also considering introducing secondary sanctions, targeting Russia’s oil and gas, albeit with some limitations. Therefore, they have urged the US to impose tighter and higher tariffs on Russia to pressure it to end the conflict as early as possible. For now, the US has already imposed 50% on India, although Navarro also stated that “India can receive a 25% discount if it halts purchases of Russian oil.”  Israel-Gaza: The fight still goes on with the current death count total of 51 Palestinians since dawn on Wednesday. Despite an effort to end the war in Gaza, Israel has still pushed through plans to seize Gaza City while signaling that it has no plan to accept the ceasefire for now. Even in the meeting with the White House, some reports cited the uncertainty of whether the Israelis would attend this meeting or not.  So, to conclude, uncertainty in the war conflict and the potential of having tariffs sparked the gold price last night while leaving some path for the Federal Reserve’s factor to cause further movement in the near term.  ***The gold now started to shift the momentum in early Thursday as the Market is now eyed for the GDP data and PCE data tonight.***  The Federal Reserve Last Night The Federal Reserve’s William expects to see a further slowing economy (not stalling the economy), despite having the solid labor market conditions and the “modestly restrictive” stance on policy. This refers to how the FED will lower the interest rate but still have somewhat “restrictive going forward,” although we are still unsure what the actual event will be. 

FED’s Lisa Cook Progress US President Donald Trump said he found potential candidates to replace the FED’s Lisa Cook, right after he intended to switch Mira to another longer-term FED spot after his nomination a few weeks ago. This raises some doubt about whether these potential candidates would be the economic adviser Stephen Miran or the former World Bank Group President David Malpass, according to the WSJ report. This came after he fired the FED’s Lisa Cook from her position, although she had committed to challenging this case by saying that Trump lacked the authority to fire her. ***US President Donald Trump and US Commerce Secretary Lutnich continued to pressure the FED to lower the interest rate.*** CB Consumer Confidence Report In accordance with the CB report, although the consumer confidence index overall declined this month, the report also suggested that inflation expectations picked up while addressing concerns over a possible recession. This recession has sparked some uncertainty and overshadowed the inflation problem, resulting in a higher gold price.  Russia-Ukraine: The conflict goes on and on, with the battlefield becoming a dead field. Although US Envoy Witkoff cited that there will be meetings on Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and Gaza this week that aim to end all the conflict, the recent signs are showing otherwise. Even Zelenskyy also said, “Russia is only giving signals that it is going to continue to avoid real negotiations. This can only be changed by strong sanctions, strong tariffs—real pressure.” This remark came when US President Trump mentioned the secondary sanctions imposed if Moscow’s conflict does not end.  → Not only Russia and Ukraine will suffer, but even other countries such as India and China will also likely face these consequences. 

The Federal Reserve Lisa Cook’s Removal Trump officially removed Lisa Cook from the Fed’s position immediately. Although Cook hasn’t responded yet, she could seek the court and return to that position temporarily until the court makes a final decision on the case, only if she wants to challenge the firing.  → If she is really removed, then this will leave a spot for the four-person stand on Trump’s side and could potentially shake the central bank’s independence in the near term. → gold up because they expect to see more imbalance between them, and the potential for a rate cut is very high, aligning with Trump’s current rate goal.  A possibility of 200% tariffs on China over magnet purchases.  U.S. President Donald Trump stated that China must supply rare earth magnets, or “we have to charge them 200% tariffs or something.” This remark comes as China becomes more sensitive toward the dominance of global supply chains while adding several rare materials and magnets to its export restriction list in response to the last US tariff hike. Therefore, Trump stated that he will likely visit China sometime this year. → Some tension between China and the US has built upon this request.  → If China continues to restrict, then GOLD prices will continue to climb.  South Korea’s shipment   U.S. President Trump raised concerns about political instability in South Korea, fearing it could disrupt business. Despite this, he and South Korean President Lee expressed optimism for a deal on shipbuilding and security cooperation with North Korea, aiming to strengthen the relationship between these two divided countries. Plus, the U.S. will maintain a 15% tariff on South Korean goods, while Trump views South Korea as a vital buyer of U.S. military equipment and energy resources. Russia-Ukraine Trump made it clear that “there could be consequences if they (Russia and Ukraine) don’t meet,” although he may (not) be there for Putin and Zelenskyy. The consequences he stated here may refer to imposing the secondary sanctions on them, such as Russian oil, for instance.  However, he also noted that Europe will give significant security guarantees, which could grant some protection for Ukraine and end this war peacefully.