US-EU Tariff Reductions The United States is lowering tariffs on key European Union goods from 25% to 15%, with plans to further reduce auto tariffs once they pass matching tariff cut legislation. Steel and aluminum tariffs will remain unchanged, according to Trump Trade Adviser Peter Navarro. → In response, the EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agriculture while purchasing/investing in US LNG, oil, nuclear products, and AI chips, to deepen the economic ties between these two countries. India Faces Potential Tariff Hike Navarro indicated that India could face doubled tariffs for purchasing the Russian oil, starting August 27, 2025, while China said it will stand firmly to “uphold the multilateral trading system,” aiming to ease some tension from Trump over India’s export goods. Federal Reserve’s Mixed Signals The Federal Reserve is divided on monetary policy. Some officials, like Hammack and Goolsbee, prioritize controlling high inflation, suggesting a cautious approach to rate cuts or even not seeing any rate cut next month. Others, like Collins, show openness to easing soon, while Bostic expects limited action this year and Bullard projects 100 bps cuts in 2026. The Fed appears to want to balance inflation control with economic stability, leaning toward maintaining or slightly easing restrictive policy in the near term. Currently, economists see around a 75.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, down from the previous 80% after the FED speeches last night, while many are still highly anticipating what the FED chair Jerome Powell will say in Jackson Hole tonight.
Market Talk: FOMC Meeting Minutes, The Federal Reserve’s Fraud Allegation, And Ukraine-Russia Development.
FOMC Recap: Several Federal Reserve members expect a slowing in economic growth and weak labor market conditions, albeit with inflation still “elevated.” However, they also reported that “higher tariffs were unlikely to have persistent effects on inflation,” reflecting a growing confidence toward achieving price stability. Additionally, note that these meeting minutes came way before the US employment report was released, and the FED still anticipates weakening already. As per the report, “the committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation persists while the labor market weakens,” pointing toward the option of having a rate cut to save the labor market or holding the rate to constrain the inflation. Opinion: Regardless, I do believe the iconic line will go something like this in the next meeting: “We cannot depend on one data point,” or “We may need to see more data before the real decision.” Another iconic part is the market actually priced in a 1% rate cut at the end of 2026, after Powell’s term as the Federal Reserve Chair ends. All of these dovish statements have pushed the market to believe that easing is coming and resulted in a higher gold price last night as well. Trump committed to fire the Federal Reserve’s Lisa Cook As per the Bloomberg source, Trump accused the FED’s Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud allegations, claiming she used false bank documents for better loan terms. However, this is also seen as a strategic move that Trump plans to balance the republican power toward the Central bank’s independence. Ukraine and Russia Conflict Development Italy proposed that allies with Ukraine will be decided within 24 hours, aiming to provide military support to strengthen Ukraine’s defense. Plus, the Netherlands will also send “two patriot air defense systems” to Ukraine as well, all are bringing in more support to end this conflict, and not the other way around.
Market Talk: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Easing, Trump Criticized, equity stake in Chip Company.
Breaking News updated: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3% earlier, potentially reducing it further if inflation eases further. There are three options: holding, a 25 bps rate cut, or a 50 bps rate cut, the latter two of which are highly anticipated. Powell Trump blamed the Federal Reserve Chair Powell for being too late in lowering the interest rate while hurting the housing sector, especially when core inflation is very sticky now, standing at 3.1%. Restrictive interest rate → high mortgage rate → stained on the housing market sector and financial struggles. The Stock market Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has championed the idea, arguing “we should get an equity stake for our money,” but it remains a “creative” proposal without clear legal precedent. Although the government could potentially own a partial part of the Chip companies without voting rights (if this is approved legally), some still believe that this method may seem like a strategic move to negotiate the upcoming chip tariff with other countries, particularly with China. This idea initially sparked investor confidence and market optimism that pushed Intel’s stock price to surge, albeit providing a mixed picture for other foreign stock markets such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, LTD. (TSMC) But why good or intel? ***Possibilities*** Intel could receive an immediate cash infusion or reduce the repayment obligation as the government converts part of the Intel in the Chip Act grants into equity, especially when Intel is currently under the impression of having some financial difficulties.
A Fragile Path to Peace: Russia-Ukraine Development Despite having an improved outlook following the early resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold prices have not moved significantly. Here is what you should know: Next Meeting, as per Bloomberg source:
Weekly Gold Update: What to Look forward to? Monday Monday this week is all about the development in the Russia and Ukraine conflict, which focuses on the US-Ukraine alongside the European Leaders meeting this afternoon in Washington, D.C. (Approximately the next day in Philippine time). Highlight: The gold price climbed in the morning as they anticipate a negative outlook for the upcoming meeting—a.k.a., The US will likely pressure Ukraine to accept the deal of exchanging the territory for the peace agreement. Especially when the Putin-Trump summit on Saturday has not fully disclosed any official information yet, albeit Trump claims to have made good progress. Tip Here: Thursday to Saturday Jackson Hole symposium and the Federal Reserve Speeches. The Jackson Hole symposium is an annual international conference in Wyoming that involves important figures such as central bankers, policymakers, and financial market participants, where the watchers will gain insight from the perspective of the central bank on the current economic outlook and future monetary policy. Plus, with the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Thursday, all of these will be offered on the next initiative of the September interest rate decision. Other than that, the market also expects to see the FED’s and other major central banks’ thoughts on the current changes in tariffs’ impact as well. Please also note that this might be the last time that the FED’s Jerome Powell will be in this conference; therefore, as much as I want to think that he will settle on a good term. There is still some chance that Powell might give his all in his speeches. Tip Here: Look for the motive of their speeches, not only from the FED, but also from other central bankers as well. Technical Analysis
Weekly Data Summary Report As of August 18, 2025 Weekly Data Summary Report As of August 18, 2025 Check out what you missed from last week’s event in the United States, which was primarily based on the critical events related to President Donald Trump, the trade war, and war conflicts within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event: US-Russia Summit: Although US President Donald Trump mentioned having “good progress” on the US-Russia summit, there was no confirmed ceasefire, no sanctions, or grand announcements. There was nothing set in stone at the moment, nor any official information disclosed. But one thing we know is that Trump will have another meeting with the President of Ukraine, assisted by the other European leaders, to ensure that Trump won’t be swayed by his personal gain and press Ukraine for the land swap. Trump also posted on his social media that “Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.” Is he referring to the swapping of land for the peace agreement? Russian President Putin seeks the Ukrainian land (Donbas) in exchange for a peace agreement, albeit Ukrainians strongly reject it. So another question is, will Ukraine accept the deal while many lives have been lost protecting it, or will he continue to fight? Next Meeting: US-Ukraine afternoon time on Monday (D.C. time) (Philippines Time: around early next day). If it goes well → another meeting with Putin → gold is likely to fall. Trump on CPI Data and Interest Rates U.S. inflation is raising some doubt about reaching the restrictive level of 2%, amid some deterioration seen in demand consumption, and yet the CME Fedwatch Tool still priced in a September rate cut with odds of over 80% as of now. Trump claimed tariffs have not caused inflation or other national issues. He urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 1%, arguing it would stimulate economic growth. The stock market Nvidia and AMD Chip Deal with the U.S. Government President Trump confirmed that Nvidia has agreed to pay the U.S. government 15% of revenue from sales of its H20 AI chips to China to secure export licenses, allowing resumed sales after prior restrictions. This also included AMD, followed by the negotiation where Trump initially sought 20%. Furthermore, Trump announced a 90-day extension on China tariffs, delaying their implementation to provide more time for negotiations, according to CNBC. He also stated that tariffs on steel and chips will be set this week, with rates starting lower initially to ease market impacts.
Market on Edge Ahead of the Russia-Ukraine summit on Friday There are growing concerns over the Russia-Ukraine summit on Friday as Trump continues to put pressure on Russia to end the conflict and will likely face severe consequences if the war does not stop. Trump also hinted at having a second meeting that would focus on having a trilateral (Ukraine included) if the first one goes well, albeit some argue that Ukraine should be in the first one as well. So the market awaits further progress on Friday, whether this will turn into more certainty or will lead to another problem. On the economic front, Trump also intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, mocking Chair Jerome Powell over the Fed’s building renovation and demanding interest rates be slashed to 1%, significantly lower than current levels. For now, he is still narrowing down to 3-4 candidates, with an announcement expected anytime soon. Other than that, Goldman Sachs Macro Economics Research projects a more measured approach, forecasting 3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, starting in September, October, and December.
Market Talk: US Inflation, The Federal Reserve, and Trump’s response. Nothing much on today’s news since the market is still muted ahead of the US-Russia summit on Friday. The US Inflation headline printed a softer cost pressure on consumption, which showed a growing appetite for the September rate cut, and that surged from 88% before the data release to 94.2% after the data release. The US Treasury Secretary Bessent opted to have a 50 bps rate cut in September, which is higher than the 25 bps the market mostly priced in. So this so-called repricing, paired with “no tariff on gold,” has given a chance for the gold to pave its way up, albeit not that much. The primary problem we see is that the core CPI annually, which could possibly come from the shelter—the stickiest one—has increased higher than the prior figure and could become a bumpy road to achieving the target rate within the timeframe. After the CPI was released, Trump also called out Goldman Sachs for being wrong on the tariff inflation problem. He reiterated that, even with post-tariff implementation, inflation hasn’t affected consumption except for foreigners, the government, and companies. Other than that, Trump is also considering preparing a major lawsuit against the Federal Reserve Chair Powell over the construction of the FED building. Even if Trump said that he won’t fire Powell, he has been urging to fight against Powell for not lowering the interest rate as he suggested.
Weekly Gold Market Update: Bearish or Bullish? Fundamental Analysis Factor 1: President Donald Trump clarified on his social media that “Gold will not be tariffed!”, increasing the gold demand and resulting in a higher gold price for the initial reaction. However, the gold price slipped back once again as the market started to question whether this gold can still be called a safe-haven asset. The gold price dropped by roughly 0.50%. Highlight: Normally, having the gold tariff lifted → Gold demand will likely to go up long term. Yet in this context, many still question gold’s credentials as the safe-haven asset → gold only bounced for the short term. Factor 2: Ahead of the US-China Deadline today, another 90-day suspension of tariffs was signed once again by President Donald Trump early this morning, albeit some markets already anticipated this agreement. Not much reaction after release. Highlight: Having an extension would mean more clarification for the market → gold should go down. But here, the market is anticipating the CPI tonight. Factor 3: The US Consumer Price Index tonight will offer insight regards to inflation problem and how the Federal Reserve will take the next initiative step toward the interest rate decision. Highlight: Factor 4: A meeting between Russia and the US will be held this Friday in Alaska, where some sources cited that Russia seeks to acquire Ukrainian territory in exchange for peace. Yet, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected this proposal, saying that “we won’t give up the land for peace,” although he expects that some agreement will be made. However, Trump also mentioned that “there will be some swapping; there’ll be some changes in land,” hinting at the possibility of giving up territory in order to restore the peace. In a pre-context, higher tariffs will be imposed on those who purchase Russian oil, such as India or China, so having a lesser tension between them or reducing the hostilities will likely favor these countries in return, albeit gold prices will likely slump. However, if a ceasefire is not reached and tension increases → may possibly lead to higher gold prices. Technical Analysis Here is a scenario for the Gold price this August:
Market Wrap-Up For Last Week! Weekly Data Summary Report As of August 11, 2025 Unlike any other week, which was filled with several economic indicators, last week was more about Trump’s events, including the rigged labor data, trade war, potential candidates for the Federal Reserve governor, and the FED chair. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event: Rigged Labor Data: Trump continues to conclude that Friday’s labor data was rigged and false, although no evidence was found. Despite this, this still raises some questions regarding the repeated revisions of the job data that could change the entire scenario of the recent labor conditions. The Federal Reserve Selection: After Trump picked Miran as the Federal Reserve governor, rumors started to fuel that Trump’s team will likely explore more options for the Federal Reserve Chair after being narrowed down to 3 candidates last time. The current candidates now after being added, are Fed President James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh. Trade War: In the process of ending the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump imposed a 50% tariff in total for India on purchasing Russian oil, while China is still being considered to impose one as well. Meanwhile, chips and semiconductors are now being tariffed at 100%, which could fuel more inflation expectations coming in, although some major companies such as APPLE, NVIDIA, or TSMC are exempted for making a big investment in the US. Russia-Ukraine: Trump said he will have a meeting with Putin next Friday in Alaska, although the whole progress has not been disclosed yet. Gold prices reacted quickly downward after hearing about a meeting with Russia, as the market believes that this could tone down some tensions not only with this war but also the war between the US and China for oil purchases. And even Canada also supported ending this war, through an intended restriction and lowering the price cap for seaborne Russian-origin crude oil from $60 to $47.60 per barrel. Economic Calendar: The BOE cut the rate while signaling a hawkish statement that sparked the GBPUSD higher after the data was released. The vote for the rate cut was reduced from the projected 8 votes to 5, and the remaining support for the rate was unchanged. As for the Purchasing Managers’ Index report, the majority of economies are pointing toward inflation concerns, while some business activities are contracting to some extent. Except for Europe, where inflation is now easing, but the outlook does not offer any better conditions, and that could push the European Central Bank to reduce the rate.
