Market Talk: The Bank of England Easing, Trump’s FED choice, Intel, and China. The Bank of England (BOE) Easing The BOE cut the rate, and yet the vote for easing reduced from a projected 8 votes to 5, while the remaining are supportive of the rate unchanged. This called for a hawkish tone, which has sparked the GBPUSD higher after the data was released.  However, there is rising speculation that the BOE might reduce the balance sheet runoff, as the current pace is already cracking the bond market and raising some debt concerns. This could be seen as a move to ease quantitative tightening. ***ONLY Speculation*** TRUMP Meanwhile, Trump also temporarily chose Miran as the Federal Reserve (FED) Governor until January 31st, 2026, at least before the old term ended. This could also pave more way for further easing from the Federal Reserve since Miran also stands by Trump’s side, albeit a political conflict of interest will be very likely.  As for the FED chair, Trump’s team now favors choosing Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller as a potential option for his deep knowledge of the Federal Reserve system and his willingness to ease. The other two options—Trump recently downgraded the FED choice to three—are still opting for Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.  So if everyone is still on board with this current trend, then the monetary easing bets would be very likely.  Aside from that, Trump also called out Intel’s CEO to resign before the market opens by stating that “The CEO of INTEL is highly CONFLICTED and must resign immediately.” With that, Intel stock dropped by approximately 3%, given the threat imposed on their CEO. Although this could be considered a one-time threat, if this goes on and the CEO does not take action in time, then the stock is likely to fall further.  Possible Extension: According to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, “The US is likely to extend the China deadline for another 90 days.” If so, then gold will be another downfall. However, do note that this could be just a rumor. 

Gold prices update as of August 07, 2025 Gold prices moved positively due to some concerns regarding the tariff implementation, the central bank’s current stances, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.  ***But do note that, while some companies are likely to dodge these bullets, not all will. Therefore, those who are not in the list are likely to be affected negatively. Focus on the stock market tonight and how the commodities market responds.  → Bad for the stock market if things escalate, but will appreciate in gold prices.  ***However, the latest development also mentioned how Russia is now inclined to a ceasefire, albeit not much should be taken into account.  ***Showing more support for a rate cut would favor gold prices, especially when Mr. President will likely announce the FED appointment in the next few days. 

Market Recap: The Federal Reserve Choice, Trump’s criticism of the Bank, EU and India Tariffs, and Russia-Ukraine Development. A lot of things are going on here in New York pre-market and during—the higher EU tariff rate, India’s secondary sanctions, the Federal Reserve chair’s 4 options, rigged labor data, and Trump’s criticism of the bank’s stance. All are displaying rising uncertainty and pushing the gold prices higher on late Tuesday. Inside the US economy: Starting off with how Trump repeatedly criticized the potential of having rigged Friday’s labor data, to opting to pick one of the 4 Federal Reserve chair candidates by the end of the week, to having the higher probabilities in September rate cut. All are causing the uncertainty in the economy and are factoring in the higher gold prices. According to the CME FEDwatch Tool, the market is pricing in a 92.9% interest rate cut in September.  Regardless, major banks such as JPMorgan and the Bank of America are showing support for having no rate cut this year due to the potential of a persistent inflation problem, while rejecting Trump’s business proposal. All have resulted in a decline in their respective stock prices before the pre-market, right after Trump claimed that both banks discriminate against him.  Russia-Ukraine Conflict development India is likely to face secondary sanctions for purchasing Russian oil, and yet, not everything has been confirmed, as Trump mentioned having further clarification after the meeting with Russia this Wednesday. This came when Russia option an air truce with Ukraine as an offer to the US. But Trump also mentioned that, if the ceasefire is not met by Friday, then fresh sanctions will be very likely.  → If the meeting escalates, meaning Russia did not accept any obligation, then this will favor safe haven assets such as gold and vice versa.  Ongoing Trade Tension:  Looking Forward:  Semiconductor, Chips, and pharmaceutical tariffs are expected to be discussed next week.  → Positive for pharmaceutical tariffs, which would be beneficial for Switzerland, one of the leading exporters in this industry. But for now, Trump also mentioned that this tariff might reach 250% which could be negative news for them. → Positive developments in semiconductor and chip tariffs would give an upper hand to the tech stock markets.

Main Story of Today: US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index Report The main story of today will be focused on the purchasing managers’ index, particularly in the New York session, which will assess most of the insights from the business’s perspective in the services sector. That includes pricing, employment level, or consumer spending conditions; all in all, that is what gives us some of the health checks on the economy.  Projection: Higher than the prior figure → Better than the benchmark of 50 → more expansion, better economic growth. And vice versa.  Recap from the S&P manufacturing PMI and the ISM manufacturing PMI Both reports printed lower than the benchmark 50, stating that demand stagnated and input prices (inflation) rose, while employment could fall into bad shape; all are in relation to the tariff uncertainty. Especially the pricing for the manufacturing significantly surged above 60, emphasizing the concerns over the inflation problem in the near future. Even if some tariffs have already settled down, will this fade out the current rising inflation?  And another question posed: will the services pricing rise as high just like the manufacturing sectors? So watch out for the pricing, as too high a price now would lead to lower consumption later, and degrowth is very likely.  ***Although this report will only be expressed as the business sentiment, this also acts as an indicator to confirm the deal with the inflation problem and labor market conditions. 

Key Highlight: The Federal Reserve, Trump’s action on both India and Friday’s Labor Data The Federal Reserve Daly welcomed more than two rate cuts despite being uncertain about whether the next move would be in September. She projects that the effect of tariffs won’t be persistent and can’t afford to “wait forever,” especially when further weakness in labor market conditions could possibly drag down economic growth.  A signal for a quicker rate cut → slightly positive for gold prices.  The other two main stories of today would revolve around President Donald Trump about:  India: After a long period of intense pressure to end the Russia-Ukraine conflicts through imposing secondary sanctions on whoever purchases Russian oil, would face the same consequences, India still went over this threat and continued this purchase. Trump is frustrated and declared he would have more substantial tariffs, albeit the exact number has not been disclosed yet. Although this is a threat again, if he were to officially announce that he will raise taxes further, it could push the price of gold higher for a while. Trump’s criticism of Labor’s data: Trump believes Friday’s labor data—nonfarm payroll, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings—were rigged due to multiple revisions subsequently being made. Well, in fact, this revision has entirely changed the whole idea of recent labor market conditions and made people question whether the US labor market is in a very bad position or what. In fact, He called this move a fake political number.  Causing uncertainty → positive for gold prices. 

The Recent Drop in Gold Prices: A Look at the Driving Forces Factors that pushed the gold prices down recently: Factor 1: The Federal Reserve (FED):  The FED delivered a hawkish statement after the interest rate was unchanged at 4.5% since December 2024, leaving no call for the next meeting decision. In fact, they reported on having strong economic growth and a solid labor market, while inflation is still persistent and may be affected by the high tariffs. All in all, several uncertainties remain unsolved, which lead to holding the interest rate further. The CME Fedwatch Tool stands at 50-50 chances in the next decision.  Factor 2: Trump’s tariff development:  The White House released its modified tariff rate, which will take effect in seven days at 12:01 a.m., Washington Time, and impose a 10% global minimum and 15% or higher duties for countries with trade surpluses with the US. Meanwhile, Canadian tariffs were raised from 25% to 35% and Mexican tariffs will be extended for 90 days.  Other than that, goods imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, and other key industrial products are expected to be reported separately in the coming weeks. All of these are sending a mixed signal for everyone, raising doubts on whether further development will diminish the concerns or add another phase of tariff tensions.  Further details here. Factor 3: Earnings report from 7 magnificent stocks. Meta Platforms and Microsoft posted strong earnings while announcing more spending will be pulled into CAPEX—aka, mostly to the AI expenses, which is enhancing tech sector sentiment and driving their stock prices up.  Morgan Stanley expects that $2.9 trillion will be spent on chips, servers, and data center infrastructure from 2025 to 2028, while other investment banks reported that all of these will likely contribute roughly 0.5% to U.S. GDP growth this year and next. → positive stock market → appreciate dollar value and depreciate the gold prices.  ***Warning opinion: the big risk is whether this huge investment will be paid off later or not; beware of the AI boom/AI bubble.*** Looking Forward:  Tonight’s employment reports include the nonfarm payroll (NFP), unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.  Higher NFP + High Average hourly earnings + Low unemployment rate → strong labor market conditions. And vice versa. 

What You Missed: Key Insights from Last Night’s News Here is what you should know:  → So as long as the trade agreement remains in place, the gold price will likely continue downward.  Other than that, look forward to tonight’s US job data—JOLTs Job openings and CB Consumer confidence, which both will offer insights regarding the labor market conditions and consumer sentiment.  ***pay extra attention to the trade agreement between the US and China tonight.***

Market Update: Trade negotiations are on the table once again! The Gold prices primarily move downward as the market digests the trade agreement with other major economies. One is with Japan, which includes 15% tariffs on Japanese goods in exchange for an investment of $550 billion in the US and opening the market to cars, trucks, rice, and other selected agricultural products. Second, Indonesia also agrees to open the market as well, in accordance with its social media post.  One thing to be aware of is that the US and Japan are now exploring a new offtake agreement for Alaskan liquefied natural gas, while Japan’s rice purchase could be boosted by 75%, as per the White House statement. Even with this positive outlook, the Bank of Japan’s Uchida also vowed to closely monitor the economy.  However, shortly after his re-announcement, Trump also reiterated that he “will only lower tariffs if a country agrees to open its market. If not, much higher tariffs.” Leaving more tension in the room for other major economies that do not comply. And with this statement alone, the gold prices shortly rebounded before continuing their downward trend.  Meanwhile, for the US-EU trade deal, there is some speculation that the EU and US will be closing on potential 15% tariffs on European imports, with some exemptions on some products, similar to what has been done with Japan. But if this fails and Trump continues to threaten the 30%, then the EU will likely reciprocate.  All of these factors caused the gold price to decline last night, and if the majority of the trade deal is agreed upon, then this downtrend would likely continue unless other factors come into play, such as war escalation, the interest rate or Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s resignation/criminality. But the question is for how long?

Breaking News: Global Trade and Economic Updates—July 23, 2025 The United States: President Trump continued to criticize the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting interest rates should be lowered by at least 3 points, possibly more. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called for an investigation into the Federal Reserve’s recent renovations, though Powell’s latest speech did not refer to these concerns.  So what did Powell focus on last night?  → none on monetary policies, economic conditions, or inflation.  → Focus on banking system stability, such as higher-quality capital, less systemic risk, and stress tests.  Trade Agreement Philippines: Trump hailed a new trade agreement with the Philippines, imposing a 19% tariff, down from 20%, on Philippine goods, while eliminating U.S. tariffs (0% tariff on the U.S., open market). The deal also includes military cooperation.  → Positive sentiment for investors, stock market tonight→ possibly disfavor gold price.  Indonesia:  In a Truth Social post, Trump celebrated a trade pact with Indonesia, with 19% tariffs on Indonesian goods and 0% on US goods. Furthermore, Indonesia will also supply critical minerals to the U.S., as well as sign major deals for Boeing aircraft, American farm products, and energy, strengthening bilateral ties. → Positive deal for automakers, tech companies, manufacturers, and agriculture industries → positive for the stock market tonight.  US-China: According to the Swedish PM, there will be a continued trade negotiation between the US and China early next week in Stockholm, primarily focusing on the trade deal.  Japan: Early this morning, Trump also announced a “massive deal” with Japan, which will set 15% tariffs on Japanese imports while seeing $550 billion pulled into the US. This 15% comes lower than the initial tariff rate of 25% in the tariff letter, which could be considered very optimistic for everyone, particularly when they open to trade on cars and trucks, rice, and certain other agricultural products.  –> Nikkei rose in early Asian market. Canada: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced ongoing positive efforts to secure a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump before the deadline of August 1st. In fact, He is actively preparing measures to support workers in the steel and softwood lumber industries, which have been affected by President Donald Trump’s high tariff policies, although not much progress has been made so far.