The ECB rate decision Checking in for the European Central Bank rate decision tonight at 7:15 pm Cambodia time, with many widely anticipating to see an unchanged rate decision.  This comes as the EU’s inflation is now skewing around the restrictive rate of 2%, which could be a sign that the ECB has finally reached the annual target rate. But the tariff concern shall also be monitored regardless.  The purchasing managers’ index report has raised some concerns about the pricing and labor productivity shortage; having such a steady rate would leverage them to even hold the inflation tight but not too tight, while leaving some breathing room for the economy to grow as well. Therefore, focus on the statement and find the current pain point from the central bank’s perspective.  US Inflation Headline Followed by major US inflation data released at 7:30 PM Cambodian time, with many widely anticipating seeing some rising inflationary pressures on consumption tonight. Last night, wholesale inflation data came in softer than expected, yet the market did not react much.  So my thought here is: 

Despite having a softer print in the producer price index, which is known for the wholesale inflation last night, the gold price did not seem to move much. This could be seen as the act that the investor really awaits for tonight’s big inflation headline—consumer price index, as this will signal the Federal Reserve’s motive for the next meeting. The September rate cut is already priced in, but for the October and December? That’s the real question. As per Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, “I would expect a 25 bps cut, and I think you could see one or two other cuts.” This could be due to the recent tariff concerns.  Speaking of the tariffs, Mexico plans to hike the tariffs on cars from Asia, specifically targeting China, up to 50%, causing some tension for the trade agreement, as Mexico has become the biggest destination for cars from China. As for other countries such as the US and Canada, they are very unlikely to be affected due to a free-trade pact, known as the USMCA.  Meanwhile, President Donald Trump urged the EU to impose a 100% on India and China for purchasing Russian oil, although many still believe this is very likely to be rejected. And for Russia and Ukraine, updated, Russia continues to violate Poland’s airspace, and Poland has shot down 4 out of at least 19 Russian drones. In fact, as the intrusion continues, Poland has received plenty of support for the air defense from the EU allies as well. And for Trump, he now acknowledges the invasion that Russia had on Poland, while many were expecting to see more escalation and response from Trump.   Meanwhile, Israel and Qatar are leaning toward a tough time, with Qatar sending out the letter and reporting Israel’s “flagrant violation” to the UN, citing that Israel’s Netanyahu is leading the Middle East into Chaos. And Israel is issuing a warning to Qatar and other nations. At the same time, Israel still invaded Yemen, and 35 people were killed. 

US payroll benchmark US job growth for the year ending March 2025 was significantly weaker than initially reported, with payrolls expected to be revised down by a record 911,000. This signals a prolonged period of modest growth and a weaker labor market, supporting the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, according to BMO Capital Markets’ Sal Guatieri. Even the JP Morgan CEO Dimon also suggested that this data is weakening.  However, some also argued that the data is mainly based on unemployment insurance records, excluding the undocumented workers such as immigrations.  In short, the labor market is proven to be weak, and supports the FED Fund rate cut.  Israel-Qatar:  Despite Israeli channel 12 reported that Israel’s recent airstrike in Qatar was approved by President Donald Trump, Trump later clarified the decision was Netanyahu’s alone, not his, while signalling that he will give a full statement of Israel tomorrow.  Meanwhile, Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported one security force member killed during the strike, with others injured; it condemned the “cowardly” assault as a violation of sovereignty and international law, denying prior warnings and reserving the right to respond. → Some tension is rising from this attack, and the gold has not reached much.  Russia-Ukraine Update:  While a Russian airstrike brutally killed 24 elderly civilians on Tuesday, Russian drones also violated Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, leading Poland to scramble NATO warplanes, heighten air defenses, and close airports temporarily. Poland’s Prime Minister announced a border closure with Belarus starting Thursday due to aggressive Russia-Belarus “Zapad” military drills. In fact, President Karol Nawrocki believes that Vladimir Putin may be prepared to invade other nations Court Blocks Trump’s Bid to Remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook The U.S. judge temporarily halted Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, ruling he likely lacked sufficient cause based on unproven mortgage fraud allegations from a Trump ally—aka lack of evidence.

Higher expectations for a rate cut After a weak labor data last week that has forced the Federal Reserve to cut the rate by three times this year, JPMorgan’s trading desk also warned about “sell the news’s events as the investors pull back from the US equity market. Following through on a widely expected interest rate cut on 18 September, with odds more than 80% in 25 bps, while some are leaving on the 50bps rate cut.   Global Instability As per CNBC, the two federal courts ruled President Trump’s emergency tariffs illegal, which Trump is now seeking a Supreme Court reversal. If unsuccessful, the U.S. may need to refund importers $750 billion to $1 trillion, per Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, albeit he said he’s quite confident in this case.  Meanwhile, Indonesian Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who has a global investor has high expectations in bringing more stability to the Indonesian economy, has now been removed. This led to uncertainty and panic in the market, resulting in a market sell-off.  Secondly, French Prime Minister Bayrou resigned due to a loss in a confidence vote, with 194 lawmakers voting in support and 364 voting against. Along with the debt concerns, all of these are leading to more instability and making the safe-haven asset more attractive.  Mounting Geopolitical tension:   Despite UN condemnation, Israeli forces killed more Palestinians and destroyed infrastructure in Gaza. Israel issued new evacuation warnings on Monday, threatening bombings, while other countries, such as Spain, imposed an arms embargo to pressure Israel to end the conflict.

Weekly Data Summary Report As of​ September 08, 2025  Below is a summary of the United States, primarily based on​ critical events related to President Donald Trump, the trade war, and war conflicts within the week. Disclaimer: Please note this is opinion-based; do not take it as investment advice. Key Highlight Event: Economic Indicators: This week mainly focuses on the job data, which several data show having a weakness in the labor market conditions, just like what the Federal Reserve Chair Powell and other FED members suggested. As for inflation, some still believe that pricing will be temporarily sticky due to tariffs, albeit still above the restrictive level of 2%. Demand consumption showed some improvement, especially in the services sector.  Therefore, the labor risks are pushing the Federal Reserve to price in a September rate cut while leaving two more rate cuts in October and December for easing. The Federal Reserve: Plus, now Trump seems to have narrowed down the Federal Reserve Chair to three candidates, including Waller, Warsh, and Hassett, all in favor of the low interest rate. Especially when Trump acknowledged the risk in the housing market, having a lower interest rate will help ease some tension in the mortgage debt.  The US court: After the US court tried to sue President Donald Trump for overriding the authority on tariff imposition, Trump posted on his Truth Social that, “US could be rich or poor, depending on the Supreme Court case on tariffs. If we lose the court case, I guess we’d have to unwind trade deals”. Unwinding here also means that they will need to refund the collective import tariff back to its original owner, threatening the US financial market as a whole. Even the US Bessent also warned about this.  Japan Trade: Per the White House, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to enact a U.S.-Japan trade deal, imposing a 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, with specific provisions for automobiles, aerospace, generic pharmaceuticals, and scarce natural resources. The reduced tariffs on Japanese cars will take effect seven days after the order.  Geopolitical Development: Russia continued to launch the largest air attack on Ukraine, damaging several buildings across the country with 810 drones and 13 missiles. In response, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US and Europe will pressure the economy through imposing more sanctions on Moscow as well as “secondary tariffs” on those that buy Russian oil, aiming to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.  Trump also mentioned that, “I am thinking about removing troops from other countries, but I never even thought about removing troops from Poland.” This is also an act to put more pressure on Russia. Regardless, Russia, China, and North Korea seem to be getting closer, which could pose some threat against the United States. As per Trump’s post, “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America.”  Meanwhile, the Israel-Gaza conflict is still intensifying, albeit Donald Trump vowed to put forward a new proposal to end the war in Gaza, calling it a “final warning” for Hamas.  US-Venezuela A U.S. attack on a Venezuelan speedboat, suspected of carrying drugs, killed 11 people, heightening geopolitical tensions and fueling Caracas’ suspicions that Washington seeks to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro. 

Recent US job data are leaning toward fragile labor market conditions as businesses have become more cautious about hiring activities amid the uncertainty in geopolitical, internal political, and tariff risks.  Economic indicator vice, This is evidenced by weaker ADP employment changes, lower job openings, rising jobless claims, and even both ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment levels also dropping below the benchmark of 50, which indicates an increase in layoffs and slower hiring activities in both sectors.  The Federal Reserve’s POV side, several Federal Reserve members are hinting at the increasing weakness expectation coming to the job data, with some projecting to see a rise in the jobless rate to around 4.5% next year. Meanwhile, the FED’s Beige Book also highlighted sluggish labor market conditions.  → all weakness signs for soft labor prints. With that, the market now prices in more than 90% on a rate cut while leaving the other two rate cuts in October and December. Therefore, the market is now awaiting tonight’s data.  Tonight’s Data Projection So with some downward projection in tonight’s US job data, Nonfarm Payroll is expected to slowly rise to 75K (still below 100K), the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%, and wage growth annually to stay the same, all suggesting a higher expectation of seeing some more softening.  So the question here is whether this comes as anticipated or what? And if all of which really come as expected or even lower → the fragility of the job market will be confirmed, and the Dovish FED fund rate → will likely weaken the USD while strengthening the GOLD price.  But if this comes stronger → contradicts with other recent job data → the FED may consider a rate cut in the next meeting, albeit the September is coming very highly as anticipated. This also means that this data will signal a hawkish rate cut. → USD may become stronger and will put some downward pressure on the GOLD price. 

The U.S. labor market continued to show signs of weakness, with ADP reporting lower employment, Challenger cut indicating more job cuts, JOLTS showing fewer openings, and rising jobless claims. High productivity eases inflation but reduces hiring demand, leaving the labor market fragile.  In fact, the Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also noted “a continued deterioration” in the labor market conditions that could signal on having an early easing to combat this softness. As for the Federal Reserve, President John Williams raised concerns, highlighting challenges from shifts in immigrant labor and expecting the unemployment rate to rise to about 4.5% next year. He projects PCE inflation at 3.00%-3.25% this year, cooling to 2.5% by 2026. He also notes that tariffs are already impacting prices and consumer behavior, though they have not yet triggered a long-term inflation spike. Markets now see a 99.3% chance of a Fed rate cut, as weak jobs and high productivity lower inflation risks, which give the Fed room to ease monetary policy. In a very simple meaning, the cracks are forming.  So if tonight’s payroll miss, or wage growth cools further, while increasing the unemployment rate, then the FED’s path to cut the rate will get even clearer. However, if the data becomes stronger, then the market may need to rethink its economic stance again. US-Japan 15% According to Reuters, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday formalizing a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, implementing a 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, with special rules for cars, aerospace, generic drugs, and scarce natural resources. The lower tariffs on Japanese autos are set to take effect seven days after publication of the order. Other than this, Trump is still urging Europe to pressure China over Russia’s war, while China’s Xi reaffirms ties with North Korea. All of these are causing some certainty in the market; however, the recent gold price has not reacted fully yet, as the market is still waiting for tonight’s nonfarm payroll data.

First started with, US Job data–Jolts Job openings report, which came lower than projected reading, showing a slowdown in hiring activities, while the job openings are dropping. All are suggesting to weaken the labor market conditions, just like what the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has expected.  In fact, several Federal Reserve members from last night, such as Waller, Bostic, Musalem, and even Kashkari, who have always believed in a hawkish stance (FED’s Kashkari), are acknowledging the softening in the job market while inflation still weighs on their minds. However, if the labor continues to weaken, then there will be an expected market shift. Regardless, most are still priced in for the rate cut in September while citing that the economy is slowing but not recession yet. For now, investors are betting on a September rate cut, with the odds at 97.6% while moving up their expectations for the next rate cut from December to October.  Tariff Development:  According to Trump, “The US could be rich or poor, depending on the Supreme Court case on tariffs,” reflecting that these tariffs imposed gave him the leverage to strike a deal with other major trading partners and generate more revenue for the US economy. So if the US court really rules these global tariffs as an illegal act, then this will only bring more distress to their economy and market.  Geopolitical Tension: War Other than that, Trump continues to put pressure on Russia as President Putin remains inflexible on ending this war without military involvement. In fact, the US urged Europe to stop purchasing Russian oil and join the proposed sanctions. At the same time, Trump also affirmed the U.S. commitment, stating, “We’ll put more there if they want,” to help Poland “protect itself.”  In response, Putin welcomed the US President Donald Trump to further discussion on the current progress while leading the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to meet in Moscow, Russia.  Other war tensions included Israel and Hamas, the US and Venezuela—which hinted at more strikes coming against drug smugglers. 

High anticipation is built upon the July US job data—Jolts Job Openings—that will be released tonight at 9:00 PM Cambodia time, with a lower projection than the prior figure.  This projection suggests more weakening in the labor market conditions, which could potentially align with what the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his speeches last time. This also means that businesses are taking a more cautious approach ahead of the uncertainty in the market.  One thing to note, both the previous July ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the manufacturing PMI, employment levels are evidence supporting these weakness claims.  And if by chance, this data continues to show more softening, then this will increase more odds of an interest rate cut and will likely result in higher gold prices. And vice versa for a stronger than expected.